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Interest rates will remain where they are (Thursday, 1/31/02)
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates eleven times last year, but not this time. At a meeting concluding yesterday, the Fed decided to leave rates alone for now, given increasingly consistent and credible signs that the economy is strengthening. Ron Scherer agrees that indications are that the rebound has started, but slowly. The Washington Post says that this may have been the mildest recession so far .

Rich guys club (Thursday, 1/31/02)
At least, this is how many critics of globalization see the 31st annual World Economic Forum getting underway in New York City. Surely, many "movers and shakers" are in attendance, including some famous folks. Serge Schmemann reports that the forum has always been held in Davos, Switzerland, until this time when world economic leaders decided to move it to New York, in part as a symbolic gesture showing the resilience of the global economic system, despite the destruction of the World Trade Center. Virginia Postrel says the mood is more somber than usual, though, and confidence in the righteousness and inevitability of global economic integration has been shaken slightly.

Unemployment claims increased last week (Thursday, 1/31/02)
Despite what seems to be an improving labor market overall, the number of people applying for first-time jobless benefits was up last week, according to new data from the U.S. Department of Labor. Also, employment costs were up during the final quarter of 2001, but at a lower rate than during the previous quarter. Finally, the Commerce Department reports that personal incomes have been growing nicely but consumers cut back on their spending a bit in December. However, as Jeannine Aversa reports, consumer spending has remained fairly strong throughout the recession.

The quest for security in the American dollar (Thursday, 1/31/02)
Many Argentines are betting that they'll be personally better off with dollars than with pesos, and the International Monetary Fund would like to see the American dollar become the official currency of Afghanistan for the time being.

More small biz loans in Arizona (Thursday, 1/31/02)
Small businesses that have been having difficulty obtaining loans from local lenders are often finding what they need from the Small Business Administration. Here's more from Yvette Armendariz of the Arizona Republic.

The Administration wants to cut back some job training programs (Thursday, 1/31/02)
Officials in the Bush administration aren't convinced about the effectiveness of some job training programs which had bipartisan support only a few years ago, so the President's budget will call for cutbacks. However, many of the nation's mayors are disturbed by the plan.

Bush's plan for taking up the slack in the Pell Grant program (Thursday, 1/31/02)
Large numbers of Americans are able to attend college because of the Pell Grant program, but it's running a $1.3 billion deficit. The Education Secretary has persuaded President Bush that other programs should be cut in order to close the gap.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Campbell Development Surveys (Thursday, 1/31/02)
In an effort to better match people to career paths, Edward K. Strong developed the Strong Vocational Interest Blank early in the 20th century, and it remains the oldest standardized psychological test still in common use. Of course, it has undergone continuing research since its first development, and for many years, it was called the Strong-Campbell Interest Inventory because of the involvement of leading contemporary psychometrics expert, David Campbell.

However, some years ago, Dr. Campbell went off on his own and developed the Campbell Interest and Skill Survey, which many experts regard as more useful than the Strong instrument, because it assesses probabilities that a respondent will be compatible with various occupations based on a combination of his/her perceptions of interests as well as potential skills. In other words, "Would I like this type of work and do I think I would be good at it, and how do my perceptions relate to those of people who are already satisfied with and satisfactory in the occupation in question?"

Campbell also has developed a number of other instruments intended for assessing leadership, organizational attributes, team development, and team leadership, respectively. Here's more about the Campbell Development Surveys.

What? No recession? (Wednesday, 1/30/02)
Well, in the most picky, technical way, we still haven't had two consecutive quarters of negative growth, according to the latest numbers. The American economy managed an annualized growth rate of 0.2 percent during the fourth quarter of last year. If that sounds like something that might even be within the margin of error, it underscores how little practically different this growth is from shrinkage. For all practical purposes, the U.S. economy has been in recession, but the 4th quarter numbers provide additional evidence that better times lie ahead. Additional reports from the Conference Board yesterday suggest a similar conclusion, and the Washington Post reports on what appears to be the beginnings of a turnaround in payroll employment. All in all, it means no additional interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve today.

The President's plan for the uninsured (Wednesday, 1/30/02)
As expected, the President had something to say about health coverage in his State of the Union speech. Laura Meckler reports from Washington that President Bush wants Congress to go along on tax credits to help Americans without health insurance to buy it. It's an idea that has been more popular with Congressional Republicans than Democrats. Robin Toner of the New York Times has more about what the President had to say about healthcare-related issues, including prescription medications. Meanwhile, the Senate voted in favor of a tax-break plan that would give states more money for Medicaid.

Bush urges that Americans join the USA Freedom Corps (Wednesday, 1/30/02)
In his State of the Union speech last night, President Bush called on Americans to commit 4,000 hours, two work-years, as volunteers. The new Freedom Corps umbrella organization hopes to attract 200,000 people. Some years ago, the first President Bush similarly urged Americans to tackle the nation's social problems as volunteers as an alternative to large-scale government organizations and programs. At that time, it was referred to as "a thousand points of light," basically suggesting that little things can add up, and it would be a mistake to underestimate what individual Americans can accomplish together when they put their minds to it.

Somebody forgot to tell the shredding companies to stop (Wednesday, 1/30/02)
If you've been thinking that Enron stopped shredding records when the big scandal hit the fan and the front pages, well, you're being too reasonable in your assumptions. Apparently, the shredding continued until sometime during the middle of this month, according Barnaby Feder and Michael Brick. It suggests that somebody may prefer to face obstruction of justice charges than whatever might have resulted if all Enron's company records had remained intact and readable, which certainly stimulates the imagination about what has been going on. Floyd Norris and Kurt Eichenwald explain why it may be hard for anyone to prove fraud, and it isn't just because of missing records.

Finally, former Enron employees might wish that President Bush had said something about their situation in his State of the Union address. The Administration apparently did nothing to help save Enron, because of its close ties with the oil industry and Enron's campaign contributions. The whole thing has been "radioactive," so far as Administration officials are concerned, and they haven't wanted to touch it. However, allowing the company to sink so as not to give the appearance of having sold influence has allowed Enron workers to sink too. Proponents of campaign finance reform claim that the special interest money that floods Washington has a corrosive influence overall, and the fact that it can put public officials between a rock and a really hard rock is another reason that changes need to be made. As Senator Lieberman, who has also accepted Enron contributions, has told people over the years, "If you want me to help you if you get into trouble, don't give me money."

Economic forum produces social forum (Wednesday, 1/30/02)
While the World Economic Forum is going on in New York City, an alternative meeting is occurring in Sao Paolo, and it's not simply coincidental. The World Social Forum is attracting large numbers of people who feel that globalization tends mostly to hurt the world's poor and the global environment.

Europe's tilt to the right (Wednesday, 1/30/02)
Steven Erlanger reports from Berlin that right-wing political movements are gaining ground in Europe, and not just in places like Germany and Spain, which have had strong conservative traditions over much of the 20th century. Anti-immigration feelingss seem to be fueling the trend. Even traditionally leftist Scandinavian regions are affected, he says.

Remaining coal will stay in the ground (Wednesday, 1/30/02)
Japan's last coal mine has shut down, thrusting 1,000 people into unemployment. Here's more from Kenji Hall in Kushiro, Japan.

Are stock options corrupting the American economy? (Wednesday, 1/30/02)
It seems to be a good idea to link executive rewards to performance measured in terms of company success. During recent years, more and more executive remuneration has come in the form of stock options as opposed to salary. Trouble is, according to noted economic writer Robert Samuelson, the options not only motivate high performance, but also motivate diddling with profit reports, and when the numbers don't really represent what they should, it can screw up everything. Is this one of the root causes of the Enron mess, and how much has it corrupted the rest of the American economic system?

Boys' toys (Wednesday, 1/30/02)
Males are more likely to have a "magnetic attraction" to hi-tech, while women tend to be more utilitarian in their relations with computers, according to the new book by Jane Margolis and Allan Fisher, Unlocking the Clubhouse: Women in Computing. Here's more from the San Jose Mercury News.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Labor Project for Working Families (Wednesday, 1/30/02)
The Labor Project for Working Families offers resources, including sample family-friendly union contracts, and works with unions and other organizations on issues having to do with child and elder care, work schedule flexibility, and more. The Project is a creation of the Institute of Industrial Relations at the University of California, Berkeley.

From overcast to only partly cloudy in Germany (Tuesday, 1/29/02)
The entire world's economic prospects have been limited recently by the fact that the world's three-largest economies, the U.S., Japan, and Germany, in that order, have been in a frump. Japan has been in and out of recessions for ten years, and no immediate solution is on the horizon. In fact, as Yuri Kageyama reports from Tokyo, Japan's unemployment rate hit another record again last month. While the U.S. economy has been troubled for months rather than years, it may or may not be in the beginnings of a recovery. Germany, which has Europe's largest economy and the third-largest economy in the world, has been stumbling lately, but the Ifo Institute's business climate index, based on a sampling from 7,000 businesses, rose this month, suggesting a more optimistic mood. Still, many German business leaders may get a little depressed all over again upon hearing that IG Metall wants a 6.5 percent wage increase for its members this year, despite Germany's high unemployment rate.

Class-action suit aims at recovering retirement losses (Tuesday, 1/29/02)
With evidence growing that Enron and Arthur Andersen may have cooked their books in a boiling Shakespearian cauldron, there is growing concern in Congress and elsewhere about the security of stock-based retirement plans. Rosanna Ruiz reports from Houston that hundreds of former Enron employees have banded together to sue those who may have played a role in maintaining the fog of misinformation that resulted in the destruction of the value of so many 401(k)s. Incidentally, Jesse Jackson apparently thinks somebody called 911 and he answered. Jesse has gotten involved on the workers' behalf. He met with Ken Lay for about an hour and found the former Enron chairman to be convincing, but, of course, so did a lot of Enron workers not so long ago.

Bush's plan for a prescription medication benefit (Tuesday, 1/29/02)
The President would like the federal government to spend $190 billion over the next ten years to help America's elderly poor with the cost of prescription medications, something he will no doubt mention in tonight's State of the Union address. Many in Congress don't think that will be enough, and they're not all Democrats.

Perspective on deficit spending (Tuesday, 1/29/02)
The Washington Post's Richard Cohen explains the difference between Keyensian and Bushian deficits.

Companies worry about Mississippi's workforce (Tuesday, 1/29/02)
David Firestone reports that companies wanting to bring good jobs to Mississippi are concerned about the size and quality of the available workforce, including the state's educational system.

The hazards of mixing roles (Tuesday, 1/29/02)
Within the human service professions, it's generally regarded as a bad idea and, in fact, possibly unethical, to mix personal and professional relationships. If you're a surgeon, you probably shouldn't operate on your own child, for instance, or a psychotherapist shouldn't have a family member as a client, and, of course, psychotherapists or professors should not have other kinds of intimate relationships with their clients or students. Best to keep the boundaries separating roles and relationships clear and distinct. Sherri Cruz writes about similar risks when your boss is also your relative. Here's more about the special complications involved in family businesses.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: The Lifestyle Optimizer (Tuesday, 1/29/02)
You choose your criteria, and the Lifestyle Optimizer will help you identify the ten American cities where you might be most happy living.

Bush's welfare plans and other issues (Monday, 1/28/02)
The most conservative wing of the Republican party is part of President Bush's coalition, and in the election last time, he needed those people. Without them, instead of being a tie, the election probably would have put Al Gore into the White House. However, if a presidential election were held today, it's likely that a lot of Democrats would vote for Bush, given his popularity because of his administration's handling of the war against terrorism.

So, at least for awhile, the President doesn't have to please the Republican right-wing so much. Even if he makes them mad now and then, they'll probably vote for him next time anyway, because they won't have anyplace else to go. Unless the Enron mess or some other scandal brings down the administration, it's unlikely that any other Republican more to the conservatives' liking would be able to get the nomination, and right-wing Republicans aren't likely to vote for ANY Democrat. Isn't the President fairly conservative himself? Well, probably, but he needs broad moderate support in order to govern effectively, and he will need not to stray too far from the ideological center in order to help in the winning of elections. Each right-wing voter he attracts probably could cost him more than one voter elsewhere in the ideological spectrum.

One consequence of this changed political landscape is Bush's moderate position on welfare. Laura Meckler has more on how much the President would like to spend and what he would like to see it spent on.

Incidentally, despite partisan rhetoric which, in part, is simply intended to influence those members of the public who are vulnerable to such stuff, given some historical perspective, it really isn't always possible to tell from what officials are saying whether you're listening to a Democrat or a Republican, because positions and policies can shift all over the place. Richard Stevenson says that the budget that President Bush will send to Congress certainly doesn't look all that fiscally conservative, despite all the things that candidate Bush was saying about a year and a half ago. Of course, that was before September 11, 2001, which is to say that it was part of a different era of American history.

A new word for your political insult dictionary (Monday, 1/28/02)
Senate Majority Leaders Daschle is trying to help his party tar the Administration as well as Republican office seekers in this fall's election with an economic brush, thus his claim that Bush is "Enronizing" the economy. No illegality is being claimed, but Leader Daschle won't be unhappy if some of the public's negative feelings about the Enron mess rub off on the Administration.

If you want to rebuild Afghanistan, bring everything you'll need with you (Monday, 1/28/02)
Somebody has remarked that much of Afghanistan's major cities looks like New York City's "ground zero." For the country to become a real nation again, rather than the terrorist equivalent of a crack house, it will need everything, starting with tons of money. Representatives of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are visiting Kabul to take a look and confer with officials of the new Afghan government.

Toys used to be us (Monday, 1/28/02)
Toys 'R' Us will close 64 stores and cutting 1,900 jobs.

You might rather have the money (Monday, 1/28/02)
Even if you haven't been working for Enron, you may be on fairly thin ice if your employer's contribution to your 401(k) is stock rather than cash. Scott Burns has been adding up the numbers and finds that a lot of workers missed the big boom of the 1990s, among other things.

Corporate giving is up (Monday, 1/28/02)
The Conference Board, best-known for its Index of Leading Economic Indicators, collects other information as well. One of its latest reports tells about a significant increase in the amounts of money contributed by U.S. corporations to charity.

Defining an IC (Monday, 1/28/02)
No, that's not "integrated circuit;" it's "independent contractor." If you can call somebody you pay to perform a service for you an IC rather than an employee, it will save you money. The Internal Revenue Service is aware of this, and they've been watching closely. Here's some help in trying to decide who qualifies and who doesn't.

A good idea made bad, or simply a bad idea from the beginning? (Monday, 1/28/02)
One of the more outrageous myths is that Enron was the seventh-largest corporation in the United States. For a time, it certainly seemed like it, but we now know that all those impressive numbers resulted from a witches' brew that gives new meaning to the expression "cooking the books." The collapse of the company may have involved illegality, and, at the very least, seems to have been a consequence of the sort of arrogance and loss of contact with reality that resulted in the bursting of the dot-com bubble only a short time ago. Still, can these issues be separated from Enron's basic ideas? Daniel Altman asks if Enron's basic business model really makes any sense.

Meanwhile, David Kaplan reports from Houston on survival efforts, not only on the part of a company that may really have zero value at this point, but also many of the individuals who have been connected with it. The recent suicide of a former top Enron executive is making many people think about survival, and not just the survival of careers. He seemed to be one of the "good guys" who could have been a whistle-blower. What motive did he have for killing himself? About 30,000 Americans kill themselves each year, and hundreds of thousands try to, so we can guess that the motives are highly variable. In his case, though, the fact that he collected tens of millions of dollars from the sale of his Enron stock at a time when he believed that the company was in trouble and possibly committing fraud brings serious insider trading issues to mind.

Incidentally, why were so many people willing to take such risks with their own well-being and that of others in order to collect tens of millions of dollars? Why did they WANT tens of millions of dollars? It's a real question. Most people probably would be willing to deposit the checks if they were to win the lottery, but not everybody is willing to pay the very high price of obtaining wealth.

Still, many Americans seem to be among those persons whom Oscar Wilde remarked "know the price of everything and the value of nothing." One of the reasons that the United States, with only about 5 percent of the world's population, puts far more than its share of pressure on global resources and the global environment, is that Americans have been taught, particularly following World War II, to believe that the excessive pursuit of wealth and accumulation of material possessions doesn't require explanation. Everybody wants these things. It's human nature.

Well, no. Values and priorities differ tremendously across time and cultures. Take a look at that little spice rack in your kitchen and think about how little it probably means to you. Still, there have been times during which the course of history has been altered by the pursuit of spices. Nations competed in the spice trade and went to war because of it. They invested mightily in trying to find new routes to where spices could be obtained. Of course, part of the motivation arose from the need to deal with rancid, half-spoiled food all the time, because there wasn't any refrigeration. Still, our ancestors' priorities weren't necessarily our priorities.

Paul Revere, a well-known early American, was a fairly successful businessman. He made quite a lot of his money as a silversmith who produced silver tea sets for wealthy colonialists. How badly do YOU want a silver tea set at this point? How important would it be to you? What would you be willing to do in order to obtain one? Would you be willing to spend half as much as the value of your house? During colonial times, that's about what many of them cost, and there were plenty of willing customers.

Today, anyone who would be willing to risk his/her own life or the lives of others for spices or a silver tea set would seem to be more than a little nuts. Well, what about a car that somebody has decided (??) is "worth" $80,000? Why would anyone want one? Why would anyone even want to allow such a thing to clutter up life, particularly considering the time and effort and cost and risk that are likely to be required in order to obtain one? Keep in mind, of course, that even a long life of 80 years contains only 29,200 days, and most people will sleep through a third of those. How do you want to use your precious days?

Times change. Maybe some of our current attitudes about wealth and consumption will change in time for us to save the planet and ourselves. Maybe not. The earth is secure. It will be here whether or not we are. A few of us may become fossils, but will there be anyone to look at them and to speculate about how those fossils came to be?

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: CareerCity on Interviewing (Monday, 1/28/02)
The CareerCity site offers help on interviewing, including preparation, the interview itself, and follow-up.

How workers are slammed by bankruptcy (Sunday, 1/27/02)
When a company goes broke, jobs usually are lost, but that's not all. Many surviving and displaced employees can easily lose a lot of their retirement funds too. Enron's workers have been hit hardest, in part because of too little 401(k) diversification combined with what seems to amount to looting on the part of some top managers. However, as James Paton reports, retirement fund losses are not an uncommon problem, even when no funny business has destroyed the business. Take Kmart, for example. the decline in its stock value has cost the big retailer's quarter-million employees millions of dollars.

The manufacturing sector begins to show strength (Sunday, 1/27/02)
While the overall economy has been in recession, the manufacturing sector has been struggling at more like depression levels. However, it appears that manufacturing in the Midwest is stirring now and can be expected to play a major role in lifting the American economy out of recession.

HP claims employees favor merger with Compaq (Sunday, 1/27/02)
Internal company surveys find that about two-thirds of the employees at Hewlett-Packard favor HP's planned acquisition of Compaq. However, many people would find independently conducted polls to be more convincing.

Forum in the Big City (Sunday, 1/27/02)
The World Economic Forum opens this week in New York City, and organizers are hoping that things will be a bit more quiet in the streets than during earlier gatherings. Here's more from David Kalish.

Two "P" words that will go together: productivity and politics (Sunday, 1/27/02)
The New York Times' Louis Uchitelle says that we should expect productivity to become a major political issue in the campaign just ahead. Productivity has to do with efficiencies in an economy and, in the long-run, determines a society's overall standard of living.

Morale at NASA (Sunday, 1/27/02)
Marcia Dunn writes from Cape Canaveral about how NASA's employees are feeling about the space agency's future and their own under the new administrator, Sean O'Keefe.

Day labor begins to disappear in the Pacific Northwest (Sunday, 1/27/02)
Immigrants who try to make a living one day at a time are having trouble now after a fairly long period when jobs were plentiful. Here's more from Sam Howe Verhovek in Tacoma.

What are the costs of cutting costs? (Sunday, 1/27/02)
Little things add up, and, during hard times, employers want to cut expenses as much as they can. However, some cuts can also cut deeply into employee morale, according to Lawrence Van Gelder, and be counterproductive in the long-run.

Is human behavior rational? Not necessarily. Is it predictable? Probably (Sunday, 1/27/02)
Traditional economic theory has assumed a level of human rationality that has long had other social science researchers scratching their heads. Of course, economists also recognize that people often behave in irrational ways, but the important question is which assumptions will result in the greatest degree of explanatory and predictive power in economic models. Steven Pearlstein reports on a change of theoretical direction brewing up in economics which may bring economic assumptions more in line with the realities of human nature. Instead of emphasizing rationality, it's all about predictability.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: FAQ about Resumes (Sunday, 1/27/02)
Here are some frequently asked questions about resumes from CareerPerfect.com. Also, some answers, of course.

An anonymous letter sets an audit in motion at Kmart (Saturday, 1/26/02)
Charges, as yet unspecified, regarding accounting practices at Kmart have resulted in the company's calling in outside accountants to take a look. Here's more from Lorene Yue and Jennifer Dixon of the Detroit Free Press. It's the sort of thing which is likely to get more ready attention now, given the Enron scandal and widespread concerns about the security of investments and the viability of the entire American economic system. Reed Abelson reports that many companies are scrambling to see if they're poised to be next on the nation's front pages. In case you're a little confused about how Enron could go within a few short months from APPARENTLY being the nation's seventh-largest company to a hollow shell perhaps containing no remaining value whatever, here's an explanation and overview of the Enron house of cards from the New York Times.

Nationwide protest in Argentina (Saturday, 1/26/02)
The ascension of Duhalde as Argentina's latest president hasn't quelled protests. People all over the country are expressing their displeasure with the government's banking freeze, according to Kevin Gray in Buenos Aires. The Washington Post reports that President Duhalde is modifying his Peronist ideology a bit in order to deal with practical realities. Meanwhile, Deputy Treasury Secretary Dam says that the Bush administration has been developing a new strategy for dealing with international financial crises, and the IMF's refusal to grant new loans to Argentina last month reflects the change in direction.

Britain's economy slowed in the fourth quarter (Saturday, 1/26/02)
Growth slowed in the UK during the last quarter of 2001, but it was still better than many had feared. Here's more from London.

Economic roots of Arab unrest (Saturday, 1/26/02)
Osama bin Laden has tried to light the fuse, so far without the kind of global success he may have envisioned, but he may have been right about widespread predispositions toward radicalization. There is widespread resentment of the West, particularly of the United States, and, as the Washington Post reports, much of it arises from the grayness of so many Arab economies in which bright, talented people find so few opportunities for interesting work or advancement.

Gateway retrenches (Saturday, 1/26/02)
You'll have to pay close attention in order to keep track of who's on top and who's not in the personal computer biz. Once upon a time, it was Apple, then IBM, then Compaq, now Dell. Somewhere along the line, Gateway was very hot, and it's still the fourth largest computer producer, but a severe recession in the hi-tech sector plus declining market share has put a great of pressure on the company. Ben Fox writes from San Diego that 19 Gateway retail stores will close and 2,250 jobs are set to be cut. Over in the more traditional consumer products area, Procter & Gamble is cutting more than 1,400 jobs as well, but not because times are bad. These cuts seem to be more a consequence what usually is expected as part of a merger. P&G has acquired Clairol and wants to reduce duplication. In fact, all of the cuts will be from Clairol's staff.

Fingerhut employees' union keeps watch (Saturday, 1/26/02)
Federated Department Stores has indicated that they will shut down Fingerhut if a buyer cannot be found, and this would throw thousands of people out of work. A number of parties appear to be interested, and union leaders are watching closely to be sure that Federated is serious about making a deal.

Shell tips in favor of women and locals (Saturday, 1/26/02)
One of the world's leading international energy companies intends to promote more women and local employees to senior positions in the company. Here's more from Singapore. Meanwhile, back in the U.S., more women are filing for unemployment benefits in Minnesota and middle-school girls in Silicon Valley are learning how to be---and whether they really want to be--entrepreneurs.

Being a new accounting grad isn't quite enough fun at the moment (Saturday, 1/26/02)
Many people are deeply concerned about the accounting profession's reputation and what the Enron/Arthur Andersen mess may mean for the future, but, as Jobert Abueva reports, there is also widespread concern about personal job prospects in the current climate.

Surviving success in hi-tech (Saturday, 1/26/02)
The tech sector has been going through some rough times, and many jobs have been lost. However, the pressures of trying to balance family obligations with very long work days can cause survivors to envy the displaced. Amy Zuckerman has a new book for managers who may feel that they are faced with an impossible balancing challenge.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Wages by Area and Occupation (Saturday, 1/26/02)
Who's making what and where? Here are data about wages by occupation and area of the country from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Department of Labor.

No longer the best politicians money can buy? (Friday, 1/25/02)
Sometimes, good can come from very bad things. For instance, we may look back on September 11 as the real beginning of the new millennium when some of the excesses of late 20th century American life were left behind, when Americans began giving less emphasis to the trivialization of precious life, when the American political culture began relying less on stereotypes, caricatures, and character assassination, when everything was no longer considered to be an ironic joke, and when people once again became able to distinguish between show business celebrities and gossip, on the one hand, and political leaders and life and death issues, on the other.

Similarly, the Enron debacle seems to have made most big-time politicians feel embarrassed and contaminated by the Enron money they have accepted, and that's most of them. Allison Mitchell reports from Washington that the House of Representatives will vote on campaign finance reform.

How about YOUR Enron stock? (Friday, 1/25/02)
Are you also an Enron stockholder? No? Don't be so sure. Gretchen Morgenson tells about how easy it is to be surprised. Investment columnist John Waggoner has advice on how you can protect yourself from vulnerability to investments that nobody really understands in companies that are the opposite of transparent in their dealings. Finally, a pall has settled over much of Houston, particularly around the Enron headquarters. David Barboza reports on morale, and his report probably won't surprise you.

Greenspan tells lawmakers they can save their energies (Friday, 1/25/02)
To the relief of many economists who have feared that Congress really will break its deadlock on stimulus plans and pass some legislation, Fed Head Greenspan says that additional government stimulus probably isn't going to be necessary, which has members of Congress reconsidering. Actually, it means they'll probably have to search for some other issue from which they can squeeze political benefit during an election year, because, as we've suggested, all along, this fight may have been more about politics than economics. David Leonhardt reports that American consumers already seem to be taking care of the recession problem.

Maybe good timing for the President (Friday, 1/25/02)
President Bush is enjoying phenomenal public approval because of his administration's handling of the war against terrorism, but he remembers his father's Gulf War success and the public support that it gained him, as well as the fact that George Bush, Sr. ended up being a one-term president because of domestic economic issues. The current President recognizes that the next election, as well as the one after that, may very well hinge on economic issues. There are reports that the President will attempt to head off the Democrats on economics in his State of the Union speech, and that among the things he will propose, will be some sort of prescription medication benefit as part of Medicare. He may benefit from news that the largest HMOs in the U.S. are either cutting back on or eliminating their medication benefits. Here's more from Milt Freudenheim of the New York Times.

Visas for victims (Friday, 1/25/02)
The Attorney General has approved the creation of special visas for people who have been smuggled into the United States.

Hispanics in America may have to wait for economic improvements (Friday, 1/25/02)
There are 35 million Hispanics in the United States, and the recession is hitting many of them hard. Moreover, according to a new study from the Philadelphia's Pew Charitable Trust, they may have to wait until 2004 to see much improvement. In somewhat related news, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found major remaining health disparities across racial and ethnic populations in the United States.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Statistical Abstract of the United States (Friday, 1/25/02)
The Statistical Abstract of the United States puts America under the microscope and comes from the U.S. Census Bureau. Their web site provides access to many reports, and you can own the whole, blooming, enormous thing in print now too. The latest 1,000-page edition has just become available.

No, not General Motors, not ExxonMobil, but...Wal-Mart? (Thursday, 1/24/02)
Kmart, once the nation's largest retailer, is better known this week for the largest retailing bankruptcy in American history. It's sharing the front page with Enron, the largest business bankruptcy of any kind, which, of course, is a different kind of story altogether. At any rate, Kmart, whose roots goes back to the late days of the 19th century, is used to being surpassed by 40-year-old Wal-Mart. But now, all the other companies in the world will have to get used to it. It appears that Wal-Mart will soon become the largest company in the world.

Meanwhile, there's nothing quite like bankruptcy to cause pain among nearly all of a company's constituencies, which, in Kmart's case, include nearly a quarter of a million employees, many of whom are likely to lose their jobs as hundreds of stores close. It would be painful for consumers too, if, as in the old Soviet Union, there was only one place to shop and it had empty shelves. However, it is part of Kmart's problem that consumers have many other alternatives, including well-stocked Target and Wal-Mart stores nearly everywhere. Moreover, while brand loyalty can help for a while with other kinds of businesses, Kmart's principal competitors sell the same products and brands. Consumers can easily go elsewhere, and there will be encouraged to do so if suppliers who are already owed money they may never collect refuse to provide additional products for the shelves. What can Kmart offer suppliers in lieu of money at this point? Shares of stock?

Finally, the Enron bankruptcy, as well as other high-profile business failures, has members of Congress reconsidering changes to federal bankruptcy legislation.

Unemployment claims down last week (Thursday, 1/24/02)
First-time jobless claims fell by 15,000 last week according to the latest numbers from the U.S. Department of Labor.

Government in the middle (Thursday, 1/24/02)
Argentina's public and the International Monetary Fund are both putting pressure on the country's government. Consumers want further relaxation of the freeze on bank accounts, and the IMF wants to see a workable plan before providing assistance.

Governor apologizes to coal miners (Thursday, 1/24/02)
Kentucky Governor Patton believes that he has done wrong to miners afflicted with black lung disease. Here's more from Franics Clines.

Women executives lose ground (Thursday, 1/24/02)
A new Congressional study finds that the gender gap in the executive suite has increased over the past five years.

Congressional Dems want to convert 1996 welfare law (Thursday, 1/24/02)
Democratic members of the House of Representatives want to make the 1996 law into a means for reducing poverty in the United States.

Labor Department inquiry focuses on 401(k)s at Enron (Thursday, 1/24/02)
It's easy to lose count of the number of Enron-inspired government investigations or hearings going on at the moment or scheduled to begin. David Ivanovich reports from Washington that the Labor Department is particularly interested in the fact that Enron employees were prevented from selling their stock while executives were freely able to dump their own.

Over on Capitol Hill, it's likely that various people will be giving testimony for some time. Enron's head--er, make that FORMER head--is scheduled for early February. Mr. Lay has resigned as chief at Enron, although he will remain on its board.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has been testifying at the Capitol today. To our knowledge, he isn't accused or suspected of a single thing, but, as usual, many people are wanting to know what he has to say. He says that he may have sounded a bit too pessimistic in recent remarks and that the recession may be ending.

Worse than low pay (Thursday, 1/24/02)
While many people in the U.S. and other privileged parts of the world, including many who work for the government, may not feel that they're being paid quite enough, Afghanistan's civil servants will be happy to be paid at all...finally.

Ports in a storm (Thursday, 1/24/02)
When the going gets tough, the tough get going...back to school. Uilu Zhao reports from Philadelphia on the increased number of people who will be trying to hide from the recession in the nation's graduate schools.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Problems in Microeconomics (Thursday, 1/24/02)
Not real-life problems, but practice problems of interest to students as well as professors. The collection comes from Michigan State University economics professor Byron Brown.

Deficits, then surpluses again, but much smaller next time (Wednesday, 1/23/02)
The Congressional Budget Office expects federal deficits over the next two years, with surpluses returning after that. However, get used to much smaller numbers.

One of the President's favorite words (Wednesday, 1/23/02)
The Washington Post has been counting the number of times the word "jobs" has come up in recent speeches delivered by President Bush, and expects Tuesday's State of the Union message to include the word a few times as well. Despite the President's preoccupation with terrorism and the war during recent months, next fall's election is likely to be determined largely on economic issues.

Democrats will campaign on what they have, and the economy offers the most viable possibilities in what is likely to be a razor-thin election for control of the Congress in the fall. Some Democrats are smelling blood in the Enron debacle, but other cool Democratic heads are remaining fairly cautious about trying to associate the big corporate collapse with the Administration before more of the facts are in. The previous administration had its Enron connections as well, and many Democratic politicians also accepted campaign contributions from the failed company. Moreover, Robert Rubin, a Clinton administration Treasury Secretary, seemed to suggest recently that some sort of government rescue might be a good idea.

President Bush's approval ratings remain high, but this sentiment won't necessarily transfer to other Republicans running for office during the months ahead. Also, polls can turn around rapidly, as leaders in both parties clearly understand.

Meanwhile, unless there is another dramatic development having to do with terrorism or war to drive campaign issues off the front page, expect to hear a lot of economic talk during the months ahead. The President is pushing his tax plan in the new Congressional session, and, as Richard Stevenson reports, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle has his own plans for leading the Senate in the direction of a recovery package more to his liking.

What now for Kmart? (Wednesday, 1/23/02)
Kmart has thousands of stores and hundreds of thousands of employees, as well as lots of nervous creditors--here are the 50 largest--and no clear corporate identity, according to many observers. Anne D'Innocenzio says the company needs to find a new niche for itself in a discount world increasingly dominated by two companies, Wal-Mart and Target, that seem to understand clearly who they are what they're for. One thing is almost certain: there will be fewer Kmart stores before long, as well as fewer employees, as the debt-ridden company attempts to cuts its losses and emphasize its remaining strengths, limited as those may be.

For the moment, it appears that Martha Stewart will stick with Kmart, although the preponderance of industry opinion seems to be that the Chapter 11 bankruptcy nullifies her contract, so that she can get out if she wants to. Yesterday, we suggested the possibility that Martha could end up running Kmart. Is this likely? Probably not, but stranger things have happened. Her company has been flourishing, even during the recession, with strong sales, profits, and stock values. Kmart, on the other hand, while far larger, is a gravely wounded giant with no profits, huge debts, antiquated facilities, and much smaller market capitalization than before.

You'll recall when the merger between AOL and Time-Warner occurred, many people assumed that it was Time-Warner acquiring AOL, rather than the other way around. Also, Kmart's creditors might be more interested in working with Martha Stewart, who may be able to turn a much smaller company into a success with a new corporate mission, even if it were necessary to agree to accepting less than Kmart presently owes them. As it is, many of the company's creditors could end up with nothing.

More retrenchment at Federated (Wednesday, 1/23/02)
Federated Department Stores has announced the closing of Minnesota-based Fingerhut, if a buyer cannot be found. Now, the parent company plans to close Macy's stores in at least two states. Incidentally, thousands of Fingerhut jobs may be saved in Minnesota now that three possible buyers have expressed interest.

United Airlines and its mechanics get closer (Wednesday, 1/23/02)
President Bush's emergency board has proposed a way to settle the dispute between United Airlines and its mechanics. Laurence Zuckermaan reports that the airline has accepted the deal.

Teachers demonstrate again in Tehran (Wednesday, 1/23/02)
It's the second demonstration in a week, according to Nazila Fathi, and the teaher protests for higher pay amount to the first time that government employees have engaged in organized protests over pay issues since the Iranian revolution in 1979.

People hurry to fix their retirement accounts (Wednesday, 1/23/02)
The weak stock market has made many people squeamish about their 401(k) accounts, but the Enron mess seems to have become the last straw for many people. Peter Kilborn writes from Baltimore about the growing move to diversify.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Layoff List (Wednesday, 1/23/02)
The Washington Post keeps track of layoffs by sector and company and frequently updates its Layoff List.

Kmart bankrupt! (Tuesday, 1/22/02)
All right, boys and girls, it's time for a story. Once upon a time, two "five and dime" retail chains, Kresge and Woolworth, dominated the low-end discount retail universe, even during the long years when Sears was the nation's leading retailer overall. Times, they were a'changin', though, and the niche for the old "dime stores" was disappearing. Woolworth struggled on its familiar path for years before finally disappearing from the scene altogether. Kresge, on the other hand, took a different route early. It re-thought itself, reorganized, and became Kmart, and, before too long, displaced Sears as the top retail chain in the United States.

But, times they KEPT a'changin', and, before long, a company from Arkansas called Wal-Mart did to Kmart what Kmart had done to Sears. For years now, Wal-Mart has operated with greater efficiency, and has continued to thrive while Kmart has struggled to hold its own.

That struggle reached a new stage today as Kmart Corporation filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, meaning that the court will tell its creditors to lay off while the company reorganizes and attempts to get itself under control so that it can survive and become profitable again. It will also need to find ways to stock its shelves while already owing suppliers money it can't pay. Whether this effort will be successful remains to be seen.

Among the observers who are much more than casually curious is Martha Stewart, who, in addition to being one of the most recognizable television celebrities in the U.S., also heads a phenomenally successful company that has managed to make her a billionnaire, perhaps a couple of times over, by leveraging information across multiple venues, then allowing her name to be used on products. Martha's not only her company's star; she also really is its CEO, so she's busy. Her problem at the moment is that her company, which has been like a jet plane rapidly gaining altitude, even during the recession, may be tethered to a huge old ship that is taking on water and in danger of sinking to the bottom of the deep blue business sea. Kmart certainly needs Martha at the moment, but does she need Kmart? Can she get out of her contract wth Kmart? Does she want to? Would she like to take over Kmart as part of a new deal? Stay tuned.

Reverse migration (Tuesday, 1/22/02)
Forget all that stuff about everybody wanting to move to the "new world." For many, it's the other way around. Jenalia Moreno reports from Buenos Aires about the Argentines who are trying to uproot and move either to Italy or Spain. Not so many years ago, the most interesting economic opportunities were in Argentina, while Spain and Italy were among Europe's poorer regions. It just shows that we all have to pay attention or we'll suddenly wake up someday and not recognize our world.

Newsweek cuts back (Tuesday, 1/22/02)
Newsweek is encouraging more than a tenth of its workforce to retire so that it can cut costs. The recession has hit advertising hard, huting both print and electronic media that are advertising-supported. However, the advertising model may be losing a little steam for historical reasons as well. Media seem to be moving more and more in the direction of a combination model which includes some sort of subscription as well as advertising. Cable and satellite TV as well as the new satellite radio are examples.

Thousands of Minnesota jobs seeking rescue (Tuesday, 1/22/02)
The St. Cloud, Minnesota community would be most influenced if Fingerhut were to shut down as announced, but the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports there are suiters apparently interested in buying the company and preserving most of its jobs.

Another reason why recessions are bad things (Tuesday, 1/22/02)
All sorts of things begin to go straight to hell when the economy starts contracting, and some are non-obvious. For instance, there has been some success in increasing workplace diversity in the United States, particularly during the boom of the 1990s. However, Mike Myers reports from Atlanta that these gains are threatened in the present economic climate.

Better not to get sick in France this week (Tuesday, 1/22/02)
Health-care workers all over the country are unhappy. Some walked off their jobs yesterday, while others are threatening to strike, according to Barry James reporting from Paris in the International Herald Tribune. Meanwhile, Padraig Yeates of the Irish Times reports that a strike has left 700 persons with disabilities without their regular caregivers in Ireland, particularly in Dublin and Galway.

Threatened judge shortage (Tuesday, 1/22/02)
Many qualified people are no longer aspiring to become federal judges, and Seth Stern explains why.

Equity markets expected to recover in the U.S. before Europe (Tuesday, 1/22/02)
Stock values are expected to recover in the U.S. as much as a year ahead of those in Europe, according to forecasters at Hibernian Investment Managers. Here's more from Mary Canniffe.

Applicant abuse? (Tuesday, 1/22/02)
You don't have to actually get the job with a lousy employer to feel as though you've been exploited or mistreated. Sad stories about rudeness or inconsiderateness, at the very least, seem to be on the increase. Here's more about the "screw you" corporate atitutde from Rebecca Theim in the Christian Science Monitor.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Fortune's 100 Best Employers (Tuesday, 1/22/02)
If you like lists, you probably like Fortune magazine. Its best-known list probably is the Fortune 500 largest American industrial corporations, but they compile other lists as well. Here's their latest list of 100 Best Employers, as well as information about their criteria and how the list is compiled. At any rate, at a time when Enron may be on a very different list, it's worthwhile to recognize companies that seem to be very good to work for.

No mechanics' strike at United for at least another 30 days (Monday, 1/21/02)
A governmental board has imposed a 30-day "cooling-off" period that will delay a strike of United Airlines mechanics for at least another month, while noting that the mechanics probably do deserve higher pay. Under the circumstances, though, a pay raise might jeopardize a company already in trouble. Meanwhile, something new is being added to the training of airline flight attendants. Many passengers will still need routine assistance, some special help, such as in health emergencies, while others may need to be prevented from killing everybody. Welcome to the new world of air travel.

As Carl Sagan might say, it will take "billions and billions" (Monday, 1/21/02)
After 20 years of war and a paralyzing drought that makes a lot of things even worse, the Afghan people have little to work with to reconstruct their country and build normal lives. Mark Landler reports form Afghanistan that it will require billions of dollars in aid to give the Afghans a chance to return things to the level of normality they enjoyed decades ago. So far, according to Gary Schaefer in Tokyo, the world has agreed to commit $2.6 billion to the rebuilding of Afghanistan, of which the U.S. will contribute $300 million. These numbers remain far short of the estimated needs, however.

Incidentally, while Afghanistan never has been a modern, prosperous nation, and it retains many traditional feudal patterns of life, there was a time when it was on many experts' lists of "up-and-coming" economies. Despite the devastation at present, there is no reason to assume that Afghanistan is a permanent "basket case." However, without plenty of attention and help from the rest of the world, the country could easily be hijacked again and turned back into a Texas-sized terrorist training camp.

Where going on strike can mean more than risking income (Monday, 1/21/02)
A possible sign that China really is in the process of becoming a different kind of country is that the growing number of workers protesting pay cuts and corruption haven't all permanently disappeared yet. However, check back in a few days.

Is the American economy repairing itself at this very moment? (Monday, 1/21/02)
Well, yes, no, maybe. Things could still go either way, according to Detroit Free Press columnist Susan Tompor. Indicators are mixed. On the positive side, a new survey from Recruiters International finds that the job market is looking pretty good. Some regions are looking better than others, of course, and among those in which optimism is fairly common, is the state of Minnesota, according to a new poll there.

More needed for Medicare (Monday, 1/21/02)
The President appears ready to present a budget that would limit payments to Medicare health care providers, while, at the same time, a bipartisan advisory panel calls for increases.

Business people face more questions when applying for a loan (Monday, 1/21/02)
In the past, if you had been in business for a while and had solid assets for collateral, a loan might be fairly automatic. Not any longer, according to the Washington Post. Lenders feel that they are faced with a greater range of risks during a recession and within an economy that doesn't necessarily operate according to all the familiar principles. Speaking of risks, what are yours as an employee? Columnist Diane Stafford suggests some signs that your employer may be diddling with your financial future.

Calls for help (Monday, 1/21/02)
Many Americans are nearly drowning in debt, with some facing foreclosure. Many are seeking help and advice from credit counselors. Here's more from Donna Halvorsen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: U.S. Economy at a Glance (Monday, 1/21/02)
Here's the United States Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics' U.S. Economy at a Glance. Point, click. look at the U.S. economy by sector, region, or state.

Gains from the 1990s endangered (Sunday, 1/20/02)
American minorities benefited from the boom of the 1990s, but USA Today reports that the current recession threatens to erase hard-won gains. Similarly, the passing of the late economic boom with the accompanying deflation of stock values also has let a lot of air out of pension funds that rest on stock values.

The severing of the connection between the U.S. and Argentina (Sunday, 1/20/02)
Larry Rohter writes from Buenos Aires that it isn't just the peso and the dollar that have been disconnected. Argentine President Duhalde's actions have foreign policy implications as well.

Post-mortems on what is seen as betrayal (Sunday, 1/20/02)
Rick Bragg of the New York Times and Anne Hull of the Washington Post examine the impact of Enron executive behavior on the lives of individuals and families. Melinda Ligos tells about a New York firm that may be at the opposite end of the scale from Enron in its relationship with its employees whom they are doing their best not to lay off, even when times are hard for the company. Meanwhile, the Houston Chronicle's Jim Barlow wonders if the Enron debacle has given intellectual capital a bad name. He concludes that it remains real and important in the new economy.

No fast recovery expected in Japan (Sunday, 1/20/02)
A new government report released in Tokyo expects more than sluggish growth for the next five years following a decade of economic troubles.

Guess who wants to narrow the divide between haves and have-nots (Sunday, 1/20/02)
The President of the United States? Is he for real? Robert Kuttner doesn't think so, and here's his article in today's Washington Post.

Why Greenspan generally chooses his words very carefully (Sunday, 1/20/02)
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve is sometimes thought to be deliberately vague so as not to set in motion processes that he doesn't intend. Investors and traders seem to parse his syllables looking for clues to the Fed's intentions as well as the Fed Chairman's assessments, particularly if they seem to be based on information not generally available to the public. A recent Greenspan speech was "over-interpreted," according to some Federal Reserve officials, and helped undermine stock values.

Temp firms hope for a better year (Sunday, 1/20/02)
The year 2001 was not good to many temporary staffing companies, but there is some reason to expect that 2002 will be a bit better.

Reverse mortgage gone VERY sour (Sunday, 1/20/02)
We've already reported on various warnings for those who are considering reverse mortgages as a way of raising cash during their late years. Lon Grossman has a story about people who found that it didn't work as they expected, and they ended up owing far more than they borrowed.

Hoping for a generational change (Sunday, 1/20/02)
Author Vanessa Summers is trying to help the latest generation of women build a financial future for themselves so that many of them will not end up old and poor like earlier generations.

More evidence of the limits of hi-tech (Sunday, 1/20/02)
We enjoy the greatest benefits of each new technology when we find ways to use it APPROPRIATELY. For instance, there are some areas of life in which email and other electronic connections work as well as face-to-face communications, but not in all cases. Personal contact seems important in education, and it also seems that face-to-face contact is essential for many clients of outplacement firms.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Education Jobs (Sunday, 1/20/02)
People who are interested in obtaining jobs in K-12 education, public or private, instructional or administrative may find help on the Education Jobs site.

Bush apparently nervous about Argentina; offers help (Saturday, 1/19/02)
Given his ideological commitment to globalization and open markets, President Bush would not welcome a populist, projectionist tide sweeping across much of Latin America. Perhaps with that possibility in mind, he has been on the telephone with Argentina's latest president, Eduardo Duhalde offering help, so long as some preconditions can be met. In Argentina itself, a new government with new policies and a deregulated currency haven't stopped the riots.

If you want to do business in Afghanistan, competition may be a little light for a while (Saturday, 1/19/02)
Afghanistan certainly has a strong need for just about every product and service imaginable. The country is in ruins, mostly from two decades of war, not from recent American bombing. Moreover, given the strong stake the U.S. and most of the rest of the Western world has in the rebuilding of a stable Afghanistan in order to prevent it from simply becoming a terrorist training cesspool again, it is likely that billions of dollars will begin pouring into the region soon, which will also produce markets and business opportunities. But, as Christopher Newton reports from Washington, most companies don't seem to be in a hurry to get ahead of the pack, and lingering danger seems to be a major reason.

Incidentally, Osama bin Laden's money came from his family's tremendous success in construction. Is it possible that the family company will offer some bids on some projects in Afghanistan? Naw...but, then, the world is a crazy place and we've all learned that predicting that something will not happen, however outrageous, seems to have become more hazardous. Also, Osama seems to have given new meaning to the term "black sheep in the family." As we understand it, there is a bid Laden scholarship at Harvard, and the bid Laden family has had a long and cozy relationship with the Saudi royal family for years, but that relationship certainly hasn't included Osama.

Bush advisor answers Kennedy (Saturday, 1/19/02)
Senator Edward Kennedy has said that he would like to see part of the big tax cut delayed now that there's no longer a surplus to pay for some of the kinds of social programs that were most argued about during the last presidential campaign. Republicans are doing their best to call this a tax increase and are trying to hold it against the Congressional Democrats. Here's Bush administration economic advisor Lawrence Lindsey's answer to Kennedy.

Lay wound up and delivered the pitch (Saturday, 1/19/02)
Kenneth Lay, head of Enron, strongly encouraged employees to buy company stock, saying that it was highly likely to increase in value, at about the time that there is reason to believe he probably knew otherwise..

Hunger strike in Australia (Saturday, 1/19/02)
Hundreds of people in an Australian camp for illegal immigrants are conducting a hunger strike.

Consumer confidence rises (Saturday, 1/19/02)
American consumers are more confident that the recession will be over by mid-year or so, at least according to a measure conducted by the University of Michigan.

Legal immigration increases (Saturday, 1/19/02)
More people entered the United States legally during the year 2000, in large part because of an accelerated effort to reduce backlogs. Here's more from Eric Schmitt of the New York Times.

If you'd like some time off, call your boss at Whirlpool (Saturday, 1/19/02)
Whirlpool will accept volunteers at their washing machine factory, but it would be eight weeks off without pay. It would amount to better public relations, internally and externally, if they could cut back on labor hours through the use of volunteers rather than by laying people off. Part of the company's spin cycle, you might say.

Smooooth transition (Saturday, 1/19/02)
They've almost finished with the changeover from 12 national currencies to the euro across much of Europe already. Here's more from David McHugh in Frankfurt.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Job Market (Saturday, 1/19/02)
Job Market is the New York Times' job listing section and has national reach.

Bush has friends in organized labor (Friday, 1/18/02)
The President hasn't forgotten about the possibility of recovering more oil in Alaska, despite environmentalist objections, and the Teamsters support the idea because it would mean a lot of new jobs. Here's more from Scott Lindlaw in Washington. Interior Secretary Norton adds her voice, saying that it's possible to get the oil and also project the Arctic environment and wildlife. Even before September 11, the White House was emphasizing that it will not be possible to solve America's long-term energy needs and reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern sources of supply by conservation alone, although the Bush administration hasn't done much to emphasize conservation as a major objective.

However, given the obvious threat that international terrorism poses to American society and the Saudi royal family's ambivalence to U.S. efforts to disable or destroy terrorist networks, a strong case can be made for energy independence as a national security objective at this point, with or without vigorous conservation. Among the more frightening scenarios would be if, assuming that he's still alive, Osama bin Laden were to essentially gain control of the Saudi government, and, thus, it's huge oil fields. Saudi influence already has been diminished somewhat by the new arrangement with Russia as an independent source of oil, but the Administration doesn't feel that will be enough. In the changed international environment, the President may have a good chance of getting his way in Alaska, but it won't mean that environmental issues are unimportant or that they have gone away.

Stairsteps that lead only in one direction (Friday, 1/18/02)
Many Argentines have found that their personal economic circumstances have declined each time their country's economy takes a hit, but when the national economy recovers, many individuals and families are left a little further behind than the time before. Argentina's poor have gotten poorer, but its middle-class has been losing ground as well, according to Jenalia Moreno in La Matanza.

Illegals take another step toward legitimacy (Friday, 1/18/02)
Some illegal immigrants will no longer have to pay out-of-state tuition at the University of California. The Board of Regents' vote was lopsided, but not unanimous, and the action does have its critics.

National strike abandoned in Nigeria (Friday, 1/18/02)
A two-day general strike over fuel prices has ended after the Nigeria Labor Congress called it off. Many of its leaders have been arrested.

IMF will require more of Turkey by the end of January (Friday, 1/18/02)
Turkey must still meet additional conditions in order to obtain a $10 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund, and the deadline is coming up fast.

Well, it wasn't a recession, anyway (Friday, 1/18/02)
As it turns out, the German economy, the third-largest in the world, did grow last year, but only barely. The 0.6 percent growth rate was the lowest in eight years. There are signs that the German economy is beginning a recession now, though. Japan, which has the world's second-largest economy, is having more problems of many kinds. For one thing, fewer than 2/3 of its March high school grads were able to find employment by November.

Arizona employment dips (Friday, 1/18/02)
Hall Mattern of the Arizona Republic reports that Arizona lost more jobs last year than during any single year since the recession of the early 1980s. Note that he's not talking about the LAST recession, incidentally.

Unions declare 2001 a good year (Friday, 1/18/02)
After a long period of membership decline as well as diminishing influence, the American labor movement may have stabilized. New Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that union membership remained steady last year.

Why a reverse mortgage may not be as good as it first appears (Friday, 1/18/02)
Judy Rose of the Detroit Free Press says that older people who are considering a "reverse mortgage" as a source of cash should think carefully, because there are cons as well as pros. Meanwhile, the idea is just now being introduced in Japan.

Can you breath easier because your 401(k) isn't loaded with Enron stock? (Friday, 1/18/02)
Maybe not. Adam Geller reports that workers at many other major corporations are keeping even more of their eggs in one basket. Time to hold your breath, or to take a close look at your retirement plan.

Good news and bad news in Silicon Valley (Friday, 1/18/02)
The good news is that it costs considerably less to rent an apartment now in America's big hi-tech corridor, according to the San Jose Mercury News. The bad news is that you're more likely to be unemployed when you move in.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Career Click (Friday, 1/18/02)
If you would like to work in Illinois, the Illinois Department of Employment Security's Career Click site offers information on more than 700 occupations in that state.

No Bush ally on this issue (Thursday, 1/17/02)
Name two big-time politicians who probably had most to do with getting the new education bill passed into law. How about George W. Bush and Edward M. Kennedy? In fact, it was noted in the major press that the President made a special effort to be nice to Senator Kennedy soon after taking office, taking care to invite him to the White House, and so on. Kennedy, long regarded as one of the most liberal members of the Congress, also has the reputation of being a highly effective legislator who can be very pragmatic and work well with either Democrats or Republicans in order to get things done. He can be an important ally of the President, but he can also be a very powerful and dangerous foe. Kennedy's decision to oppose the full implementation of the Bush tax cut is something that the President has to take very seriously. Adam Clymer reports on Kennedy's push to delay $300 billion of last year's big tax cut in order to have funds to cover some key social programs now that there no longer is a surplus. Here's more from today's Washington Post.

Enron allergy (Thursday, 1/17/02)
Suddenly, both major political parties are trying to get rid of money they've accepted from Enron as if it were contaminated with anthrax. Meanwhile, the conservative Dr. George Will examines several likely and significant politico-economic consequences of the Enron debacle, not all of which he welcomes, but he's a realistic man. Many key members of his own party are likely to be standing in line behind former Enron employees for an opportunity to kick the company's top executives right in the...well, you know. Elsewhere, George has remarked that President Bush's effort to minimize his own Enron connections by saying that they contributed to Ann Richards' gubernatorial campaign, while true, seemed slippery and "Clintonish."

Bush warns against protectionism (Thursday, 1/17/02)
Argentina's new government seems to be retreating from free-market policies, and this concerns U.S. President George Bush, who apparently fears that it is an attitude that could spread throughout much of Latin America. Scott Lindlaw has more from Washington. Joseph Stiglitz, the latest economics Nobel Laureate, feels that the International Monetary Fund made major mistakes when it advised Argentina, and that these contributed to that country's current crisis.

Death of a catalog company (Thursday, 1/17/02)
After 54 years, Fingerhut will shut down and 4,700 Minnesota workers will lose their jobs. It seems to be a surprise to nearly everybody.

Unemployment claims fell last week (Thursday, 1/17/02)
First-time claims for jobless benefits were at their lowest level last week in the past six months. Can you stand more good numbers? Consumer prices were down in December, and the U.S. economy had the lowest rate of inflation throughout last year since 1988.

Violence in Malaysia (Thursday, 1/17/02)
Police tried to arrest a number of Indonesian factory workers because of suspected drug use, and this led to a riot involving hundreds of people.

Putin works to patch things up with Poland (Thursday, 1/17/02)
Ron Popeski reports from Warsaw that relations have been improving between Russia and Poland, and President Putin is visiting the former Soviet client state with the hope of improving things further and promoting economic development. Attitudes on the part of some Poles may be influenced by the fact that, in a previous life, Russian President Putin spent a number of years as a KGB officer.

New York's new Republican mayor seems quite a lot like a Democrat (Thursday, 1/17/02)
That may be because Michael Bloomberg, the phenomenally successful entrepreneur and new mayor of New York City, has spent much of his adult life as a Democrat, despite his decision to run as a Republican this time. Jennifer Steinhauer says that he won't object to being called a social liberal, and this is why his policy priorities will be somewhat different from those of his predecessor. For one thing, he'll be focusing much attention on the Big City's poor. Bloomberg spent tens of millions of dollars of his own money on his mayoral campaign. In fact, his LOCAL campaign cost a large proportion of what the Democrats spent on Al Gore's presidential run in 2000.

Some reflections on the new economy from more than 60 years ago (Thursday, 1/17/02)
Somebody has remarked that one of the nice things about growing older is that you meet a lot of new friends each day. Hal Varian writes that our collective memory can be equally impaired. For instance, he looks back to some ideas from a 1937 paper by Ronald Coase, winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, for perspective on the "new" economy.

If truth is the first casualty of war, economic truth is the first causality of a political campaign (Thursday, 1/17/02)
One of the things that economics and psychology have in common is that everybody believes they know more about these things than the experts. However, polls show that 1 of 6 or 7 adult Americans aren't able to locate the United States on a world map, and 450 years after Copernicus, nearly half of Americans seem to believe that the sun revolves around the earth, or they're not sure. Moreover, it's probably fairly safe to say that Americans know more about geography and astronomy than about economics or psychology. All this helps explain some of the goofy things that political candidates say during their campaigns. If most Americans felt that the relationship between the sun and earth were really important to them, candidates would be saying some pretty crazy things about astronomy too, because it's about pandering for votes, not about facts or truth. We can only hope that our political leaders occasionally are more sophisticated than their rhetoric. David Francis of the Christian Science Monitor explains why you may safely ignore much of what politicians will be saying about economics at least until sometime in November.

New lottery (Thursday, 1/17/02)
The Internal Revenue Service says that your number may come up, but it won't be anything personal. The big U.S. tax collector intends to audit 50,000 of this year's tax returns for research purposes, but they'll try to be nice about it, and the selection will be random.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: MonsterTrak (Thursday, 1/17/02)
MonsterTrak used to be called JobTrak and will connect you to hundreds of college and university career centers, but many require that you be an alumnus or current student. A vast number of listings for internships, part-time, and also full-time positions are presented, though, as well as other information of interest to students and former students.

Even if you agree not to sue, the EEOC can go ahead and do it for you (Wednesday, 1/16/02)
The Surpreme Court has ruled that the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission can sue on behalf of people who have agreed in advance to arbritration in case disputes arise with employers. Here's more on what Linda Greenhouse of the New York Times says limits arbitration law.

Strike in Nigeria (Wednesday, 1/16/02)
Much of the country has been shut down by strikes, and police have arrested a leading labor leader.

More unrest in Argentina (Wednesday, 1/16/02)
One of the things about a really big COMPLICATED mess is that there usually aren't any small simple solutions. A new populist president and deregulation of Argentina's currency haven't been enough to quell the protests or riots. Incidentally, while vast numers of people migrated from Europe to the Americas, Larry Rohter writes from Buenos Aires that some of their descendants are wanting to go back.

What it will cost to clear the rubble and rebuild war-torn Afghanistan (Wednesday, 1/16/02)
The World Bank estimates that it will take $15 billion, which is much less that estimates offered by the new Afghan government.

Washington prepares to protect you...from youself (Wednesday, 1/16/02)
...But, also from employers who might put undue pressure on you to load your 401(k) heavily with your own company's stock. Detroit Free Press columnist Susan Tompor discusses fallout from the Enron disaster and how it might affect everybody's 401(k)s in the future.

Benefits crunch in Georgia (Wednesday, 1/16/02)
David Leonhardt reports from Atlanta that the Georgia Legislature may have to reverse itself on the suspension of unemployment insurance tax on businesses. Many other states are facing the same kind of squeeze.

SSA settles bias complaint (Wednesday, 1/16/02)
The Social Security Administration has agreed to pay $8 million to settle a class-action complaint brought by more than 2,000 employees. Elsewhere in the government, the President has banned some unions at the Justice Department on national security grounds. Incidentally, it may seem ironic, given the free-market, small government ideology common among Republicans, that many technically-skilled people and others are seeking careers in the public sector at the same time that new poll results show that Republicans have gained an overall advantage among voters. Could things change again (and again and again) before election day? Is the sky blue? Is there any sand in northern Africa? Is the Pacific Ocean wet?

Chasing ghosts (Wednesday, 1/16/02)
Jodie Snyder and Alexis Doyle report that many of the physicians listed by some HMOs to help sell their plans can be hard to find when you need them.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: PHinisheD (Wednesday, 1/16/02)
Are you suffering from "ABD paralysis?" PHinisheD is a support and discussion group for people whose doctoral dissertations threaten to become their life's work.

Bubble economics (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
To some observers, Enron looks like one of those unrealistically inflated dot-coms of a few years ago which, for a brief shining moment, had huge market caps but little tangible value and no earnings. Gretchen Morgenson tells why so many people had a stake in perpetuating the fiction of a stock that didn't reflect realities.

Now, many politicians who accepted Enron's money may be wishing they hadn't and are scrambling to show sympathy for affected workers as well as calling for reforms. Shannon Buggs wonders what form legal changes might take.

Those who have been calling for campaign finance reform all along are feeling vindicated, and, even if major officials did nothing to help rescue Enron, which, given present available information, appears likely, there is also the chance that government officials who have accepted corporate campaign contributions might do LESS than they should for fear of giving the wrong appearance.

Meanwhile, Jim Barlow has some thoughts about why rapidly growing large companies can be at risk of crashing even when they do nothing dishonorable. He calls it his "Barlow Bylaw," and it has been inspired by the Peter Principle, but at the corporate level. Just how vulnerable are most of the major companies and major stocks? Is there something essentially flawed about the system? It's getting late; do you know where your money is?

Fears that an old epidemic may come back to life (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
Larry Rohter writes from Buenos Aires that Argentina's neighbors worry that its economic problems could spread to its Latin American neighbors, but he says that's not all there is to it. How about the old contagion of "resentment-based populism" all over again?

Secret deal? (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
Former employees of Lucent Technologies are suing because of what they say was a secret agreement that may have cost them thousands of dollars in retirement benefits.

What are the limits of employer responsibility? (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
Some families of workers killed when the World Trade Center was destroyed feel that the employers have a financial responsibility to those whose lives were sacrificed, but attitudes and policies differ.

For many, making proper preparation for retirement seems like as much fun as planning their own funerals (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
The New York Times' Louis Uchitelle says that people aren't rational about retirement savings, which means that it "takes psychology" to get them to do it. He may be right about the resistance to saving, but he's also displaying the common journalistic ignorance of psychology. Psychology is one among many research disciplines, not a bag of tricks you "use on" somebody, and rational behavior is as much a part of human psychological makeup as irrational behavior. Do you ever hear anyone say that you should "use chemistry" on somebody? Makes as much sense. Incidentally, some may be having trouble saving enough for retirement because they have to pay out too much each month to service their debt. According to a new report from the Federal Reserve, consumer debt in the U.S. has reached record highs.

Supreme Court to take up restaurant tip question (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
The Internal Revenue Service thinks that restaurants and their employees may not be paying enough tax on tips. Gina Holland reports that the high court has decided to take the case.

Increasingly common tradeoffs (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
Columnist L. M. Sixel writes about companies that will pay severance to workers who agree not to claim unemployment benefits, while Dori Perrucci says that some employers are claiming that unemployment benefits can conflict with pensions and amount to "double dipping."

Watch what you say about the boss online (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
Employers have been suing former employees over criticisms distributed on the Internet, and many of them have been winning substantial awards, according to USA Today.

Chainsaw Al cuts a deal (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
Al Dunlap once was nearly legendary as a turnaround artist who could save dying corporations by drastically cutting costs and jobs. However, some at the time were saying that he often cut through fat right into the corporate bone, making it even harder for afflicted companies to recover once he had moved on. Things began to turn sour at Sunbeam Corporation, and, now, as Kenneth Gilpin reports, Mr. Dunlap and other former Sunbeam executives have agreed to pay $15 million to settle a class-action suit brought by Sunbeam stockholders.

Things begin to look better in the valley (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
John Markoff and Matt Richtel report from Mountain View, California, that the there are signs of renewed life throughout America's principal tech corridor.

German government plans to offer incentives to get the unemployed to take low-wage work (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
German Chancellor Schroeder wants to offer subsidies in order to fill low-pay jobs. Here's more from Geir Moulson in Berlin.

Merger prep (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
When companies merge, it is commonly the case that jobs are shed, but, as Brian Bergstein reports from San Jose, California, Hewlett-Packard and Compaq Computer are preparing to offer big money to keep key workers if their merger goes through.

Another economic indicator? (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
Mike Hudson of the Detroit News reports that the health club business seems to mirror gross domestic product.

Hi-tech office (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
IBM and Steelcase have collaborated on the development of BlueSpace, a very responsive work environment. Here's more from James Pritchard in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Case Breakers (Tuesday, 1/15/02)
If you want to check to see if someone you're considering hiring has a criminal record or other problems, Case Breakers can help you check public records quickly.

IFM displays willingness to help Argentina, but with conditions (Monday, 1/14/02)
The International Monetary Fund says that a viable plan will be required first. Here's more from Martin Crutsinger in Washington.

Possible obstruction of justice (Monday, 1/14/02)
Former Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Senator Joseph Lieberman says that a memo from Arthur Andersen, Enron's accounting firm, hints of possible obstruction of justice.

More on where that Enron money went (Monday, 1/14/02)
Well, at least the part that went to support political campaigns, which, as it turns out, is a very small part of the vast amounts that have disappeared in recent weeks. Some of the numbers will seem fairly impressive to most citizens, but probably seemed like pocket change to Enron executives at the time the campaign contributions were made. Both Republican and Democratic candidates received Enron funds, although a greater proportion went to Republicans, presumably because company executives expected more ready access and a more sympathetic ear from Republican office holders. They covered their Democratic bases fairly well too, just in case. It's not uncommon for large corporations to support both sides in a campaign, thinking that, no matter who wins, they'll win. Here are some of the details.

Incidentally, when the seventh-largest American corporation crashes and burns, it tends to blow a lot of other stories off the front page. Still, companies go broke all the time, and, recently, the rate at which companies have been going bankrupt has been fairly furious. Janet Kidd Stewart tells about some of the people who lose when it happens.

Only the highly qualified need apply (Monday, 1/14/02)
David Firestone reports that the DOT will be seeking highly-qualified people as security directors in large airports, where they are likely to contrast significantly with many persons who will be working on the front lines. You will recall that the Transportation Department announced last month that they will not require that screeners be high school graduates.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Volunteering Worldwide (Monday, 1/14/02)
Make a difference in the country of your choice. Volunteering Worldwide from the Voluntary Work Information Service can help you find just the right volunteer project in more than 150 countries.

Bush wants to increase food assistance; Kennedy wants to delay part of the tax cut (Sunday, 1/13/02)
President Bush wants to spend more on food aid for victims of the recession. However, federal deficits are threatening to get too large for Senator Kennedy's taste, so he would like to delay $350 billion of the $1.35 trillion tax cut to enable more domestic spending, and soon. However, a new Gallup Poll finds that 2/3 of respondents would like to see the big tax cut implemented as scheduled. Mike Meyers reports that many economists are happy that the Congress didn't get around to passing a new stimulus package, and enthusiasm for additional governmental efforts to stimulate the economy seems to be diminishing among officials of the Federal Reserve as well.

Old issues float back to the surface (Sunday, 1/13/02)
It may seem like nearly ancient history, but there really was a time before September 11, and, if you strain to remember, you may recall what seemed to be on minds in Congress, the Administration, and the media at that time. In addition to Gary Condit, there were arguments about Social Security, and, oh yes, health care. The Gary Condit show may have faded permanently, but other topics are coming back to the front. Robin Toner says that we can expect a big political fight over health care.

Economics to be central issue in Germany's elections this year (Sunday, 1/13/02)
Conservative Edmund Stoiber will challenge Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on the latter's failure to get the world's third-largest economy going again.

More on that very bad smell coming out of Houston (Sunday, 1/13/02)
The Enron debacle continues as the biggest story of the week and may continue as one of the biggest stories of 2002, depending on developments from now on. The Economist reports on the series of potentially embarrassing revelations for the Bush administration, but, as yet, the emphasis must still be on "potential." President Bush has received more support for his campaigns from Enron and people associated with the company than from any other source, but Enron played Santa Claus for many politicians, including many Democrats.

The current campaign financing system may stink, as Senator John McCain and others have been saying for so long, but people who want to win elections have little alternative but to take full advantage of rules and loopholes if all their competitors are doing so.

The key questions don't have to do with whether Enron financed campaigns or contacted key members of the Bush administration or Congress in search of help. The important issue is whether any of these public officials responded in any way in exchange for the campaign support. So far, there is no evidence that any of them did, Democrats or Republicans.

Enron itself is another matter. Pete Yost reports that the company's chairman misled employees on what they could expect from Enron stock, and Leslie Wayne of the New York Times reports that company insiders bailed out of their stock holdings in time to the tune of $1.1 billion.

There is also the question of whether Andersen, the big accounting firm, can rescue its own reputation now, considering the tremendous conflict of interest that seemed to be involved in providing both auditing and consulting services to Enron, and now that it has acknowledged that it has destroyed Enron records.

If you're having a bit of difficulty remembering who's who and what's what in the Enron scandal, here's an overview of the sordid story from the New York Times, as well as a look at the cast of characters from John Schwartz.

If not a job, how about an internship? (Sunday, 1/13/02)
The internship market is in good shape, according to L. M. Sixel, and the popularity of internships arises from the fact that they seem to benefit everybody involved. The recession and the bursting of the dot-com bubble have been causing many new grads as well as soon-to-be-new-grads to consider at least a temporary change of plans. Eve Tahmincioglu reports that new MBAs who wouldn't have been caught dead in conventional corporations a few years ago are reconsidering.

While the Internet will continue, more quietly, to change the way business is conducted and the way many people conduct their lives, another speculative bubble along the lines of the dot-com lunacy of the late '90s isn't likely to occur. The general, more substantive technology sector will come back, though, and the demand for people with high-level tech expertise eventually will strengthen considerably. And, speaking of tech, here's why, despite improvements over the past ten years, many women are reconsidering technology careers, and, in many cases, deciding against them.

What to do with literally hundreds of thousands of tons of currency? (Sunday, 1/13/02)
Now that the new euro is legal tender in a dozen European countries, governments are faced with the problem of doing something with all that old money, and it's a bigger deal that you might think. Here's more from David McHugh in Frankfurt.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: State Child Care Profiles (Sunday, 1/13/02)
State Child Care Profiles provides information about state agencies involved with child care issues as well as other resources, and comes to you from the National Child Care Information Center of the United States Department of Health and Human Services.

BIG job cuts at Ford (Saturday, 1/12/02)
Analysts have seen them coming for a long time. Now the details are available. As part of a dramatic reorganization, Ford Motor Company will cut 35,000 jobs. Here's more from Ed Garsten in Dearborn, Michigan. Mark Truby of the Detroit News considers how rapidly Ford's fortunes turned. Speaking of job losses, the totals are impressive. Approximately 1.6 million jobs have been cut from the U.S. economy since the September 11 attack, and there will be many more to come, according to a new study. Is another interest rate cut coming too? Martin Crutsinger reports that Fed Chairman Greenspan thinks that the American economy remains at risk. Among the bits of good news is that inflation was lower last year than during any year since 1986. Can you stand even more good news? Ron Scherer of the Christian Science Monitor says that U.S. manufacturing finally seems to be recovering after a very grim period.

Everybody scrambles for cover (Saturday, 1/12/02)
An honorable and successful business benefits nearly everybody connected with it, while an unsuccessful business, particularly if it is dishonorable in its activities, hurts nearly everybody it touches. When one of the nation's largest corporations unexpectedly comes crashing down, it's likely to produce effects radiating in all directions. In Enron's case, of course, large numbers of people have lost their jobs and many of these their life savings and retirement finances as well. Some employees also appear to have lost their agreed-upon severance or delayed compensation, and, of course, Enron stockholders have found the value of their shares collapse to less than one-eightieth of their value a short time ago.

Politicians are running for cover too, in part, because so much in politics depends as much on perceptions, well-founded or not, as on concrete realities. The tremendous number of news organizations, including a half-dozen 24-hour cable news channels, each with 168 hours per week to fill, will insure that there will be a drumbeat of attention given to every aspect of the Enron mess, real or imagined, with every possible question asked, many in a way that will imply we already know the answers.

The "spin specialists" from both major parties are already working overtime, hoping to guide press coverage and, thus, public perceptions. Don Van Natta of the New York Times notes the familiarity of it all. Josef Herbert reports that the White House is trying hard to exercise damage control, recognizing, of course, that there can be political damage whether or not anyone within the Administration engaged in improper activity. There's been no evidence of that so far, but a great many people work in the Administration at all levels, so no one member, including the President, can be entirely sure of what went on at this point. </