March 2007

Will eliminating those folks in the middle at work work? (Saturday, 3/31/07)
Marx (Karl, not Groucho) was among theorists who believed in a collectivist system in which the "means of production" would be owned by everybody.

However, the notion that workers can own a particular company can be part of a capitalist system, at least in principle. How well will it work? Previous results have been mixed, but we may be able to observe another real-life experiment soon. Katharine Seelye reports in the New York Times that 20,000 employees could end up as majority stockholders at the Tribune Company, a major Chicago-based print and electronic media organization.

Years ago, the great Peter Drucker wrote about "capitalism without capitalists," but he was talking about the greatly enlarged proportion of the American population owning stock in major corporations through their mutual funds and retirement plans. He wasn't talking about workers owning their own company.

Extreme climate changes, extreme weather (Saturday, 3/31/07)
Among the principal consequences of global warming are more moisture in the atmosphere, more frequent and more severe storms, and greater weather extremes, not always warmer. A new report from the United Nations scheduled for release on April 6 has been leaked to the press, and it does not contain good news for Australia. The world's largest island, also a continent, also a country, has good reason for promoting energy conservation. Rohan Sullivan reports from Sydney that all the lights went out for an hour in an effort to make a point.

So, the globe is warming--what's the problem? It has happened before, hasn't it? Besides, the cold periods have been rougher on human beings than the warm ones, haven't they?

Visit any museum of natural history and look at the dinosaur skeletons. You will be within a few feet of the physical remains of creatures who walked the Earth tens of millions of years before the first modern humans were here to scratch around on its surface. With the perspective this experience should encourage, the past few thousand years can seem like very recent history.

The last big ice age ended about 10,000 years ago, and this probably had something to do with making the invention of agriculture and the first cities possible. A long period of warmth seems to have been associated with the rise of Civilization and recorded history.

It appears that a "baby ice-age" began around the middle of the first millennium, C. E., and there is growing evidence that it was precipitated by a gigantic volcanic eruption. This period of cold may have shut down the Classical era, giving rise to the Dark Ages. And, they really were dark, apparently, in that very little record of human activities over a period of several centuries has come down to us. According to British archeological writer David Keys, the eruption and its aftermath may also have had quite a lot to do with precipitating the rise of Islam.

Then, it got warm again for several centuries during what we often refer to as the High Middle Ages. This was a time of great creativity, when the seeds of the Renaissance were planted and the great cathedrals of Europe were built.

However, another "baby ice-age" came along and lasted into modern times. The canals of Venice and Amsterdam froze solid (Remember Hans Brinker?), and crops that used to flourish in parts of Europe wouldn't support their populations anymore.

This was followed by the Industrial Revolution, and the world started getting warmer again. But, so what? Doesn't history suggest that we should be happy that the Earth is getting warmer, rather than getting alarmed? In the past, haven't periods of warmth been better for us than periods of cold?

A major difference this time is that Earth's population is several times larger than it ever was before during previous warm periods. Hundreds of millions of people live on the shores of the planet's oceans, for instance, and, with rising water levels, they will be in serious trouble as the boundaries of the continents have to be redrawn. Then, of course, there are the storms and the droughts.

However, there's another reason to be concerned about climate change this time. We've mentioned it before, and while scientists talk about it, we haven't heard much about it in the conventional print or electronic media. Moreover, our political leaders appear to be completely oblivious to the possibility.

The extent to which the planet is warming now appears to be far greater than during those earlier warm periods since the onset of recorded history. The polar ice caps appear to be melting. It's possible that this great inpouring of water into the oceans from the poles could disrupt or destroy the "thermohaline circulation" which routinely warms the northern latitudes. This could precipitate another ice age, and not necessarily a "baby." Instead, it could be the real thing--a major glacial age like the one that ended before recorded history began after lasting for tens of thousands of years.

Will it happen? Nobody knows at this point. We don't know because we're entering a genuinely novel period unlike any with which humanity has had experience. The fact that nobody knows doesn't mean that it can't happen. During your lifetime, how many things have occurred for the very first time?

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: The International Urban Development Association (Saturday, 3/31/07)
Former NBA star and Hall-of-Famer Earvin "Magic" Johnson, now one of America's most important entrepreneurs, has been transforming many urban communities in the United States by harnessing the power of the market system in order to achieve philanthropic objectives.

Around the world, others are taking a variety of approaches. You can examine some of these by consulting the third-of-a-century-old International Urban Development Association.

More on the economics of going to college (Friday, 3/30/07)
Amy Lindgren of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has been examining the question of whether a college degree really is worth the cost and reaches some nonconventional conclusions.

We've been claiming for years that degrees, as such, really shouldn't be worth anything. It's KNOWLEDGE AND COMPETENCE that are important, and there are a great variety of options for obtaining both, particularly now. Formal enrollment in an institution that is in the business of selling degrees is only one, and some of the others are far less costly.

True, on average, people with college degrees earn more than people without them; but, if employers, for whatever reason, decided to hire only persons wearing green socks, the market for green socks would skyrocket and people wearing them would be earning more than those wearing other colors. The current market for degrees may tell far more about employers, universities, and lending agencies than students or workers.

Incidentally, women are far outnumbering men in U. S. colleges now, according to new data from the Department of Education's National Center for Education Statistics. Here's more from Amy Fagan of the Washington Times.

New American labor patterns (Thursday, 3/29/07)
Most of it is old news, but Andrew Cassel of the Philadelphia Inquirer does an interesting job of summarizing some major trends in American society, as represented by some important statistics.

Incidentally, a national politician on TV recently reinforced some bogus notions by quoting the famous remark often attributed, but perhaps eroneously, to Mark Twain about three types of lies: "lies, damn lies, and statistics." Then, to deepen the hole, the politician repeated the familiar aphorism that "you can prove anything with statistics." We would add to that last remark "...but ONLY to people who know nothing about statistics."

In fact, statistics is a branch of applied mathematics that probably should be made part of basic education at both secondary and post-secondary levels. An understanding of statistical concepts is essential for making sense of the modern world in which we are surrounded by phenomena which are inherently statistical.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Nanotechnology and Nanoscience (Thursday, 3/29/07)
Technology, or the USE of knowledge, preceded modern science--the CREATION of knowledge through the use of means not dependent on the unaided sense or the limited perspective of daily life--by thousands of years. However, during recent history, technological developments have been driven by scientific developments.

There is every indication that "the next big thing" driving the global economy may very well involve the construction of machines at the molecular level. The technology of the very small provides good reason to believe that the hi-tech revolution still is in its early stages If you would like to track these developments, the Nanotechnology and Nanoscience portal would be a very good place to start.

Good plot for Rod Serling's "Twilight Zone?" (Wednesday, 3/28/07)
The race for riches is accelerating because the Earth's atmosphere and oceans are getting warmer. Doug Mellgren writes from Hammerfest, Norway about how some people are scrambling to compete for what some see as a "silver lining" arising as a consequence of global warming. We should be careful what we wish for.

The new homeless (Tuesday, 3/27/07)
Well, maybe not really homeless, or, at least, not for long; but, the epidemic of foreclosures is driving large numbers of Americans out of their houses. Adam Geller writes from Colorado about mortgage holders who must share in the responsibility for the bad things that are happening to them. Nonetheless, Bloomberg News reports that Ohio, which has the highest foreclosure rate in the country, will issue $100 million in bonds to help homeowners to refinance their mortgages and keep their houses.

Many American workers aren't using their vacation time (Monday, 3/26/07)
With so many young comedians simply salivating over the possibility of hosting one of the late night TV shows, Letterman and Leno may have good reason to be nervous about being away and leaving things to guest hosts. True, pop culture audiences tend to be a bit fickle, but if the fairly frivolous business of entertainment isn't your job, can't you afford to take a little time off now and then?

Many American workers have vacation time coming, but they're not using it. Kelley Holland writes about why so many workers simply won't go away for awhile.

Just think--if you could sell even one razor blade to each person in China... (Sunday, 3/25/07)
Many business people in the West have been fantasizing for years about what things will be like once China's vast multitudes become consumers. It may finally be happening, as China expects to become the world's second-largest consumer market within only about eight years. Still, for foreign firms hoping to tap into all those sales, it's going to be a bumpy ride, according to Credit Suisse.

Still, things seem to be going better for outsiders in Macao, which, for centuries until 1999, had been a Portuguese colony, but is now part of China. If anyone asks you what the biggest gambling center in the world is, you'll be waaaaay off if you say "Atlantic City," and you'll also be wrong if you say "Las Vegas." Now, it's Macao, and billionaire Stanley Ho is getting a major run for the money from people like Sheldon Adelson and Steve Wynn of Las Vegas. Here's more from the New York Times.

Maybe one thing at a time is better, after all (Sunday, 3/25/07)
Steve Lohr reports in the New York Times that researchers have been finding that "multitaskers" probably have been overestimating their ability to do more than one thing at once.

Incidentally, given the enormous variability found in human populations on nearly every dimension of interest, it's unlikely that everybody's brain performs in exactly the same way with respect to so-called "multitasking" either.

For instance, many years ago, researchers learned that one of the key differences between "introverts" and "extroverts," given the original meanings that Swiss psychologist Karl Jung had in mind when he made up these concepts--not necessarily the popular understanding of these terms--is that introverts spend a lot of time by themselves, not because they are social isolates, necessarily, but because they have more difficulty focusing their attention when surrounded by distractions. Extroverts are better able to "tune out the clatter" and concentrate on whatever they're doing at the time.

For instance, extroverts on a college campus may be doing homework in the middle of a noisy cafeteria, while introverts are more likely to have to bury themselves in the library where it's quiet in order to get anything done.

Who is Carlos Slim, and does he think Venezuelan policies are the wave of the future in Latin America? (Friday, 3/23/07)
Carlos Slim is the third-richest individual in the world, according to the latest Forbes billionaire list, and he has been gaining rapidly on Gates and Buffett, numbers 1 and 2, respectively. At any rate, Mr. Slim doesn't expect Venezuela's nationalization of telecommunications and energy companies to become an epidemic that will sweep across Latin America. The region needs private investment, he says.

Incidentally, Caros Slim's net worth increased by an estimated $19 billion last year alone. Moreover, he is not enthusiastic about the sort of philanthropy to which Bill and Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett have been committed. "Poverty isn't solved with donations," he has said.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Introduction to Accounting (Tuesday, 3/20/07)
How are you with money? Do you know the difference between a "debit" and a "credit" and why it's important that anybody care? Here's an Introduction to Accounting that can reduce your anxiety about numbers and money by making you feel more in touch with your finances.

Incidentally, even though, given sufficient commitment, it's been possible for generations to obtain an excellent education for nothing at the public library, it's even easier now, given the tremendous learning resources available online and elsewhere. The accounting site we're point to this time is only a tiny example of the tremendous range of resources available, even if you don't consult your public library.

Of course, you have to be the type of person who will take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves and also create opportunities when you can. On the other hand, if you're the sort of individual who runs no risk of learning anything unless somebody drags you, kicking and screaming, through a formal school curriculum, it won't make much difference how much resource is freely available, and it's fairly likely that you haven't even heard about it anyway.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Understanding Race (Monday, 3/19/07)
Even if you regard yourself as a "white" American, the odds are pretty good that you have sub-Saharan African ancestors, because most "African Americans" have "white" ancestors. We're referring here to Americans with ancestors who were American slaves, of course, not Somali immigrants or people like Barack Obama, whose father was Kenyan and had no connection to American slavery or the "Jim Crow" experience.

However, it is interesting that the Senator usually is referred to as "black," even though, with a "black" father and "white" mother, he is no more black than white. It brings to mind the arbitrary categorizations in the old South Africa. If a quarter of his ancestry were African rather than half, would so many other Americans still call him "black?"

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell usually is called "black" or "African American" too, even though he says this is not quite accurate. Instead, he says that his known ancestry is sub-Saharan African, Caribbean, Native American, and Irish. We think it's easier simply to call him "Colin Powell." According to our best available knowledge of human history, all people are "African" if we trace their ancestry back far enough.

It's important to recognize that "race" is a concept that does not necessarily represent a corresponding reality, and it is a concept that is not well-founded in biology, given our best current knowledge. In fact, DNA is the "stuff" we're all really made of, and, if you look at a person's DNA, you won't be able to tell what "race" s/he is.

In terms of superficial physical attributes such as skin tone, there is more variability WITHIN "white American" and "black American" categories than BETWEEN categories. Researchers will tell you that this type of statistical reality suggests that our conceptual distinctions are no good to begin with.

Understanding Race will help you better understand "race." People are people, and we're all made out of the same stuff.

Is Chinese democracy in development? (Sunday, 3/18/07)
Many Americans seem to believe that freedom is indivisible. This seems to be the prevailing attitude of Westerners who have been investing in China's freewheeling economy, even though China remains a political autocracy and the ruling party insists on continuing to call itself "Communist." Increased economic freedom necessarily will lead to increased political freedom, they say.

At the moment, though, we don't think anybody really knows; but it should be no surprise that many Western investors feel this way. Research has long indicated that people tend to develop and maintain attitudes which seem to justify what they perceive as their self-interest.

Still, in an apparent effort to calm international jitters, China's Premier has been saying that the Chinese government wants greater independent thinking and citizen participation. Democracy is coming, he says, but it might not be exactly what so many Westerners expect.

Premier Wen Jiabao also said that the world need not fear Chinese military ambitions nor worry that his country's new investment plans will hurt the U. S. dollar.

Meanwhile, Chinese officials continue to be concerned that their blazing-hot economy is still growing too fast. China's central bank has announced that it will be raising interest rates for the third time in less than a year.

The old industrial Midwest was hurting before, but now is hurting more (Thursday, 3/15/07)
Andrea Hopkins and Kevin Krolicki write from Detroit about how mortgage defaults are adding injury to injury in America's heartland.

Meanwhile, it isn't just the Midwestern part of the country that has reason for worry. A new report from Merrill Lynch says that the price of houses in the U. S. could drop as much as 10 percent this year, and, if that happens, the American economy could be driven into recession. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is among those who are worried, according to Ros Krasny in Boca Raton, Florida.

How did all this happen? Psychological researchers have known for generations that we tend to get less of whatever is ignored and more of whatever is recognized or rewarded, although many people with pets seem impervious to this fact. A highly-preventable economic crisis may be brewing simply because a lot of people were rewarded for simply signing up as many mortgage holders as possible, irrespective of whether they have the means to stay out of foreclosure. We believe that the search for intelligent, non-gluttonous life on Earth should be continued.

How credit card companies can completely break you, legally (Thursday, 3/15/07)
It's probably better to borrow money from a credit card company than from a local loan shark who won't feel sorry about breaking your knees, but only barely. "Plastic" money can be extremely expensive, and there are many things about how they make their money that the credit card companies would rather that you not find out. At the very least, read ALL the fine print carefully before you pay with plastic.

Should shareholders have a greater say in how they spend their money? (Tuesday, 3/13/07)
As we've indicated a number of times, among other things, a free economy means that buyer and seller are free to agree on a mutually satisfactory price without interference from outsiders, including the government. Basic business law says that "the law does not look into the adequacy of a consideration." Something is worth what somebody is willing to pay for it.

So, what's going on with corporate CEO remuneration, which seems increasingly to be marching toward the stratosphere? If this is how the owners of the company want to spend their own money, it's really none of anybody else's business. But, have stockholders really been providing their "informed consent" in these transactions? Kevin Drawbaugh reports that this is a much-discussed issue now in Congress, at the SEC, and even in the White House.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: African Americans and the End of Slavery in Massachusetts (Monday, 3/12/07)
It's hard for a site to be about work and not talk about slavery once in a while, particularly when some of America's best-known structures, including the Capitol building in Washington, D. C., were built largely with slave labor. In addition, that most primitive of institutions existed in the territory now occupied by the United States far longer than the U.S. has been without it. Moreover, the history of slavery in the United States is not just about the South. Slavery also once existed in New England, including Massachusetts, which may be better known now to most Americans as a center of abolitionist movements. Here's the African Americans and the End of Slavery in Massachusetts site.

Neuroscience research may result in changes to the law (Sunday, 3/11/07)
No kidding. Well, it MAY, but given the persistence of institutions and the power of culture, don't count on too many changes too soon, even if they would be perfectly rational. Nonetheless, Jeffrey Rosen is optimistic and writes in the New York Times about how neuroscience may be about to transform the U. S. legal system.

We've recommended for years that a fourth year of law school be added that concentrates on context. We've known many lawyers who are so bright that you'd have to shield your eyes; yet, many of these people suffer from enormous gaps in their relevant knowledge that should have been filled by the time they were in their mid-20s or so. Moreover, a lot of big-time politicians have been lawyers or judges in their previous lives.

Among many other things, our NewWorld Trends project intends to provide critical information for lawyers, politicians, and journalists, many of whom are the same people at different stages of their careers. Many of these people are members of an extremely influential community and tend to spend a lot of time with one another, at least in Washington, D. C. Some need to be brought up to at least the 19th century in their thinking.

Mr. Rosen has identified only about one percent of the overall problem. The synergistically interacting knowledge and technology revolutions have left most individuals and most institutions--including the U. S. legal and political systems--far behind. In fact, much of the criminal law is based upon assumptions about human nature that arose during a time when even the smartest people on Earth didn't know that the blood circulates or what the heart is for. That was the level of information available, and beliefs rooted in that time still greatly influence many of our institutions.

This was a time when Europeans knew nothing whatever about the existence of the two huge American continents or the Pacific Ocean and still believed in the existence of an as-yet "undiscovered" southern continent that was assumed to be far larger than Antarctica. It was "undiscovered," but most intellectual leaders still believed that it existed. In fact, only about a century before some persons who are still living were born, it was widely believed that there was a "Northwest Passage." In part, President Jefferson sent Lewis & Clark out to discover what many persons already believed to exist.

Culture casts a very long shadow, and institutions change slowly. For instance, every day, wedding cakes are included in ceremonies in which men and women publicly commit their lives to one another. Why wedding cakes? Because that was a custom in ancient Rome.

On the other hand, knowledge of the universe and everything in it that we know about has been doubling every few years, which is to say that MOST our our genuine knowledge of most things is a product of recent years.

It has taken centuries for Western Civilization to work its way out from under the crushing influence of people like Aristotle, Ptolemy, and Galen who were widely believed to be right about everything, because, well, because they said so. Similar attitudes are still widespread in places such as the United States, even though the U.S. certainly isn't the exclusive world center of irrationality, bigotry, or ethnocentrism.

Does all this mean that we should change everything now? No, because we still don't know what to do in most cases, and, when we really don't know what we're doing, unintended consequences are highly probable. We can easily make things even worse. However, one way to insure that public policy or our institutions will never be brought more into line with current knowledge is to remain ignnorant of problems or to refuse to acknowledge their existence.

Scholars often are criticized for pointing out problems without offering solutions in return. Still, the person who empties our waste paper baskets probably has done us a service without our feeling that s/he should fill them up again.

Guess who's creating one of the world's largest investment funds (Saturday, 3/10/07)
If you said "China," you are entitled to the coveted NewWork News Handshake Award.

It's hard to say much about China without using superlatives or going into scientific notation. For starters, it has the world's oldest continuing civilization. It also has the world's largest population and fastest-growth economy. It's also hard to believe that the Chinese don't expect their country to become the dominant society on Earth before the end of this century.

Despite having one of the largest multitudes still living in poverty, the Chinese have a great deal of self-confidence. They know that their civilization was highly advanced at a time when most Europeans were still living in mud huts and neither they nor the Europeans knew anything about the existence of the Americas.

At any rate, Joe McDonald writes from Beijing about China's decision to set up a fund to invest their reserves.

How to avoid being captured by the AMT without moving to Mars (Friday, 3/9/07)
One of the common misspellings of AMT is "ATM," which may be appropriate. The Alternative Minimum Tax was developed in the first place to make sure that rich people couldn't avoid paying any tax at all; but, in all its wisdom, the government didn't index it to inflation. As a consequence, now that the U. S. dollar buys about as much as a quarter did a few years ago, the AMT is causing a lot of people who don't feel anywhere near rich to pay far more tax than they would otherwise. Moreover, Congress hasn't done anything about the problem, because--surprise--the government needs the money.

This Q&A from the Christian Science Monitor addresses the problem and advises a correspondent about what can be done.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: The World's Billionaires (Friday, 3/9/07)
Here's Forbes magazine's latest list of the world's billionaires. There are 178 more than before. However, Bill Gates and Warren Buffett still top the list at numbers 1 and 2, respectively.

A billion dollars isn't what it used to be, but it's still quite a lot. In the United States, at least, a "billion" means a "thousand million." In contrast to the present situation, there was a time during the 1960s when Howard Hughes and J. Paul Getty were thought to be the only billionaires in the world, but that was in terms of 1960s dollars.

However, being a "millionaire" isn't very special anymore, at least in the United States. A million dollars in assets isn't necessarily enough to enable an individual or family to live off the assets themselves. For that, it now requires net worth of several million rather than one. Many persons with a million dollars in assets must still continue working, which wasn't the case years ago before a tremendous amount of inflation. It may be about time to retire to term "millionaire."

What's the difference between going to a "payday loan company" for money rather than the Mafia? (Tuesday, 3/6/07)
If you can't pay back the loan, you're unlikely to get your knees broken by the former group of lenders. However, annual interest rates could make you envy the physically maimed. Susanne Schafer tells how payday loan companies have been trying to change their image in order to head off possible legislation in many states.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: The Beginner's Guide to Nation-Building (Monday, 3/5/07)
Mary Todd Lincoln is credited with originating a remark that is heard fairly frequently now in other contexts. She was talking about Abraham's dancing, and said that "he wanted to dance in the worst way, and he did." Something similar might be said about the Bush administration's adventures in Iraq, given that the United States was led into war without being prepared on any level, including how to deal with casualties, as the recent scandal at Walter Reed in Washington suggests.

However, some opponents of the President have been heard to say during the past couple of years that U. S. involvement in Iraq had been destined to fail because "a country can't be democratized by force." While the Administration's efforts in Iraq so far do not seem to be succeeding, this probably isn't the reason. People who really believe it will have to explain how Germany and Japan, two of history's most vicious dictatorships during the 1930s and early 1940s became two of the world's greatest and most reliable democracies within only a few years.

Meanwhile, if you would like to build a nation, here's a beginner's guide from the famed RAND Corporation.

Incidentally, if you like to think politically mostly in terms of stereotypes and caricatures, consider that the two presidents during the past century with foreign policy attitudes most similar to George W. Bush's, in terms of wanting to "democratize the world," probably were Woodrow Wilson and John F. Kennedy, both Democrats.

More wealthy Spanish-speaking people are moving to Miami, but they're not Cubans (Sunday, 3/4/07)
Laura Wides-Munoz writes from Doral, Florida about rich Venezuelans who are exercising "Plan B" because of the political uncertainty in their home country.

Despite all the campaign bloviating and polarized reliance on caricatures, many of the world's people like to send their money or themselves to the United States because, by world standards, the U. S. still enjoys a remarkable level of political stability. If you think you know who the "bad guys" are in American politics and assume that none of America's political leaders are more sophisticated than their rhetoric, consider some of the following:

The current Ambassador to Japan and former Ambassador to Australia, appointed by President George W. Bush in both cases, is Tom Schieffer, brother of Bob Schieffer of CBS News. Tom is an attorney and life-long Democrat who was the President's partner when they owned the Texas Rangers baseball team together.

For several years before her recent death, former Texas Governor Ann Richards, who was George W. Bush's predecessor in that office, worked with Republicans in a New York firm.

Secretary of State and former Stanford University Provost, Dr. Condoleezza Rice, was greatly influenced by Joseph Korbel, one of her professors whom she regarded as having most to do with her deciding to change her major and career to international relations. Professor Korbel died before his daughter, Madeleine Albright, became Secretary of State in the Clinton administration.

Who said that they don't believe in coincidences? (Friday, 3/2/07)
In action movies and TV shows, an apparent sign of no-nonsense virility, or, perhaps, "testosterone poisoning," is to have a male character adopt an all-knowing, "common sense" expression and growl, "I don't believe in coincidences."

Well, he should, and he should study probability, as well as inferential statistics, which is based on it. Even highly unlikely events do occur with some frequency.

Matthew Richards writes in the Financial Times about the concidences that brought out the "herd instinct" in investors.

Post-mortem on Tuesday's big downer (Thursday, 3/1/07)
It now appears that the big U. S. stock market drop a couple of days ago occurred because the Shanghai market went down nearly nine percent. That happened mostly because government officials in Beijing willed it to happen, but it suggests that the U. S. economy, despite the fact that it is still many times larger than China's, is now very much under the influence of China. Will that be the case for the rest of our lives? Stay tuned.

Mark Twain pointed out that only one word separates "lightning" from the "lightning bug," and former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan apparently believes in the power of a single word as well. This morning, he emphasized that recession in the U. S. is "possible," but not "probable." The world still hangs on Alan the Oracle's every word, so he wants to choose them more carefully. Meanwhile, his successor at the Federal Reserve tried to sound reassuring, apparently with success, at least in Australia.