October 2007

Slippery slope? (Sunday, 10/28/07)
At about the time that FEMA was staging a phony press conference reminiscent of what used to go on in the old Soviet Union or what often passes for "news" in modern-day China, two U. S. Senators--one Democrat, one Republican--were calling for Congressional hearings into the apparent policies of several communications companies. There is fear that the power to discriminate on the basis of cell phone or Internet content may not be far behind.

Incidentally, on his Sunday morning CBS News program, "Face the Nation," Bob Shieffer said FEMA must have a policy saying that "your IQ must be below this number" in order to work in public relations at the agency. Why would anybody think that the truth would not come out and be publicized immediately?

Well, under present conditions in the United States, perhaps; but, in totalitarian countries, this sort of thing goes on all the time without anyone disclosing it to the public. It's why the First Amendment to the U. S. Constitution is so important and why it should be held firmly in place.

Evidence that the U. S. isn't the exclusive world center of anti-intellectualism (Sunday, 10/28/07)
Kiyoshi Sugimoto writes in Tokyo's English-language newspaper, Asahi Shimbun, about a group that would like to change stereotypes of people in Japan with Ph.D.s.

In the United States, words like "brainiac," "egghead," "do-gooder," "tree-hugger," "geek", and "nerd" are in common use, particularly by people who haven't read Tom Friedman's The World is Flat and REALLY don't seem to get it.

Meanwhile, Neil deGrass Tyson, one of the world's leading astrophysicists, seems to be in the process of becoming the successor of the great Carl Sagan as an interpreter of science in the popular culture. Tyson surprises many TV viewers because he's black, but also because he's contemporary, entertaining, and "cool."

Similarly, Lisa Randall is one of the leading physicists in the world and may very well be a recipient of the Nobel Prize in a few years for work she's already conducted. She can surprise stereotypers too, not only because she's a woman, but also because she looks like a movie star. She's clearly aware of the popular stereotype, and, as a consequence, has included a "glamour photo" of herself in her best-selling book, Warped Passages.

Incidentally, isn't Japan where the "sensei" is held in high regard in traditional Japanese culture?

Guess where a lot of the money is coming from to finance U.S. debt (Sunday, 10/28/07)
The Chinese still want to loan us money, but it may not be in our best long-term interest to become ever more deeper in their debt or to sell major parts of America to them. Wang Zhaoxing, assistant chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, has told a financial forum in Xianghe that Chinese banks are encouraged to seek more acquisitions overseas.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: American Architectural Foundation (Sunday, 10/28/07)
Physical places and spaces have quite a lot to do with shaping lives and cultures. The American Architectural Foundation was founded in 1943 when strategic bombing of Germany was underway and much of traditional European architecture was being destroyed forever. In fact, if you tour Europe now, much of what you will see is reconstruction. The two greatest wars in history were fought on European soil during the 20th century within a few years of one another. Much of Japan was destroyed during the first half of the 1940s as well.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: The American Presidency Project (Saturday, 10/27/07)
We believe that a strong case can be made for how a rapidly changing world is leaving most institutions far behind. Nonetheless, a principal reason that so many people in the world want to invest their money in the United States is because of the remarkable stability of its political institutions.

For instance, even though many Americans seem to be suffering some sort of "buyer's remorse" at the moment, no one seems to be suggesting anything other than that George W. Bush will remain President of the United States until January 20, 2009, so matter what, and, as of that day, somebody else will become president. Despite various "close calls" over its history, the American presidency, as an institution, still seems rock solid after more than two centuries.

If you would like to learn more, you can consult any of the more than 75,000 documents in the archives of The American Presidency Project started in 1999 by two professors at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

Countrywide steps up to the plate (Tuesday, 10/23/07)
The largest mortgage lender in the United States has decided to offer options to 82,000 people who are facing foreclosure because of ARMs. Meanwhile, Alex Veiga in Los Angeles reports that the mortgage industry is under increasing pressure to take even bolder action to help people keep their homes.

Perhaps it's a matter of altruism, but there is a widespread ideology in business that says that we should allow markets to work, not bail out persons who make unwise investment decisions. The fact that vulnerable people were encouraged to get in over their heads by big-time high-risk investors may or may not have something to do with it. However, it's likely that the implications for the national and global economy are more on leaders' minds at the moment.

Meanwhile, Fed official Charles Evans says that he expects that the American economy will be "moving forward" during the months ahead, with the exception of the housing sector. Despite everything, the Federal Reserve cannot afford to relax in relation to inflation, he says.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Reporters Without Borders (Tuesday, 10/23/07)
There is no special "freedom of the press" or "academic freedom" in the United States. All the special cases flow from the First Amendment to the U. S. Constitution. All citizens of the United States are guaranteed the same Constitutional freedoms of expression. In principle, this means that anyone is free to search for and describe truth as s/he sees it, however unpopular these descriptions may be with one's neighbors or government officials at a particular time.

Despite their annoyance, reporters in the so-called "mainstream media" who consider themselves to be "professional journalists," are having to compete with self-appointed and unedited people now on the Internet. The technology has made it possible for virtually anyone to have access to potentially large audiences, and anybody has a Constitutional right to refer to him/herself as a "journalist."

However, most people don't believe that it would be good idea to have licensure statutes defining the criteria that people would have to meet in order to call themselves "journalists," as we have defining terms such as "lawyer," "physician," or "psychologist." This would mean that the government would be in a position to determine who can play the "watchdog" function and it would limit the First Amendment.

Nonetheless, it also means that people who talk to reporters cannot assume that information will be considered "privileged" or that their identities will be protected by law. A physician or lawyer cannot be compelled to testify about his or her client under oath in court, but a reporter may very well be.

Moreover, in the United States, recent precedents have been established which many regard as marking the end of confidential sources, and if "whistle blowers" can't assume that a reporter will be able to keep their identities secret, government, in particular, will be better able to keep its own secrets, and many things that the public should know will never be revealed. Nonetheless, despite growing limitations, press freedoms in countries such as the United States look wonderful compared to conditions in many other nations around the world.

Despite the pride that many Americans have in their First Amendment, though, Paris-based Reporters Without Borders lists the U. S. at 48th in its 2007 ranking of 169 countries with respect to press freedom.

Worst on their list is not North Korea; no, it's ranked 168th. It may seem remarkable that any country can be more repressive than North Korea, but, at the very bottom in the 169th position is Eritrea.

The organization also reports that "bloggers" on the Internet have become targets of government repression in many countries, not just reporters in traditional print or electronic media.

Evidence for an alternative interpretation of the "ownership society" (Monday, 10/22/07)
Peter Coy of BusinessWeek reports that new research indicates that the big increase in home ownership during recent years occurred mostly because of innovations in the mortgage industry.

Incidentally, the increase in home ownership has not been the only fundamental change in the American economy. Years ago, the great Peter Drucker wrote about "capitalism without capitalists." He meant that the American economy went from being mostly owned by a few individual stockholders to one in which a numerical majority of Americans owned stock, many through their retirement accounts. At the very least, it has meant more widespread interest in what stock values are doing.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Monday, 10/22/07)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shares the latest Nobel Peace Prize with former American Vice President Al Gore. In case you're wondering, the Panel's name provides a strong hint as to what the organization's all about.

Incidentally, some persons remain skeptical of the climate crisis, and there are some good reasons. Not that persons who know and understand the evidence still have reason to doubt it. In fact, you might have about as much difficulty finding a specialist in environmental studies who doesn't believe that the climate is changing, in large part, because of human activities, as in finding one who doesn't believe in gravity or wind.

However, in addition to the tendency for people's attitudes to support their own perceived self-interests, a major part of the problem arises from widespread public misunderstanding of what science IS and HOW IT WORKS. In fact, these misinterpretations are reinforced by people in the news media who tend to misunderstand the nature and functioning of science themselves.

We've believed for a long time that somebody should produce a book clarifying these issues for journalists, lawyers, and politicians. These are influential people and they tend to spend a lot of time together in Washington, D. C. and many state capitals. Many of them should know far more than they do about science, environmental or otherwise. In fact, many journalists, lawyers, and politicians are the same people at different stages of their careers.

We were beginning work on such a book ourselves when we decided to abandon the project and, instead, provide relevant information and ideas on the Internet for these people, particularly on our intended NewWorld Trends site. "The Internet changes everything," according to the Sun Microsystems corporate slogan, and we agree. We believe that, in many cases, it makes more sense to distribute words--and nearly everything else--electronically now, than via the so-called "dead tree media."

True, columnist George Will carries an old news clipping around with him which says that scientists were fearful that we may be approaching a new ice age. He'll happily show it to anybody who seems alarmed about global warming because of what scientists seem to be saying now.

Also true, television journalists often point out with apparent glee that medical research stories regularly seem to contradict each other. If you don't like what one research study seems to be saying about what is bad for you, wait a few weeks, and it will be something else.

Of course, scientists themselves may be less confused than the journalists or members of the public who pay attention to their reports. It's important to keep in mind that, when we read stories about science in the press, we're always looking through the eyes of reporters and editors; we're not getting the stories directly from the researchers themselves.

In fact, those who have a fuller understanding of science will be able to do much of their own thinking, and many of the complaints we hear most about in the popular culture will simply go away. It's one of the reasons that journalists and policy makers should know far more about what science IS and HOW IT WORKS than many do.

Also, true, Paul Ehrlich became well-known 40 years ago because of his dire predictions due to global population increases, and many of his most devastating forecasts haven't come true. However, he may still turn out to be right about a lot of things after all, given the fact that the Earth has been attempting to support far more people very recently than ever was the case until a few years ago.

For the first time in the long history of the Earth, total population finally reached 1 billion around 1840 or so. Now, there are approximately 6.7 billion persons on Earth, which is to say that we have accumulated nearly six times as many people in less than 170 years than it took all of human history to accumulate up until about 1840.

In part, our current environmental problems are due to a small percentage of these people achieving unprecedented standards of living and levels of consumption to which many of the remaining people in the world aspire.

Also, true, weather forecasting is a fairly inexact activity, and meteorologists will be the first to acknowledge this fact. Nonetheless, people constantly seem to complain about how bad a job the weather forecasters do, all the while implying that they could do better, or, at the very least, that meteorologists don't really know what they're doing.

In fact, those who pay close attention and keep careful track will find that the accuracy of weather forecasting has increased greatly in recent years, even though there seems to be a point beyond which it cannot become more accurate still, no matter how much additional information becomes available.

"Chaos theory," with its unfortunate name, first arose in meteorology, but seems to describe the functioning of nonlinear, complex, dynamic systems of all kinds, not just the atmosphere. Imprecision and unpredictability seem to be fundamental attributes of nature at some levels.

How on Earth can scientists tell us what is likely to happen to the planet's climate over the years ahead when they can't tell us whether it's going to rain next week? This issue has occurred to the scientists, and we think it's important to ask them about it, rather than simply leaping to our own conclusions.

In fact, the scientists themselves, including meteorologists, know a lot about these issues. One of the reasons that physicist and Nobel Laureate Dr. Steven Chu's presentation was so clear at the recent Nobel Conference dealing with alternative energy sources and climate at Gustavus Adolphus College in St. Peter, Minnesota was that he probably set out to share with his audience only about 1/100,000 of what he knows.

What should people, including lawyers, politicians, and journalists know about science? Tons of things, but, at the very least, they should understand that "science" is just another name for a collection of the very best, most reliable means available at a particular time for providing trustworthy answers to empirical questions of all kinds. If you really can demonstrate that you have a superior method for learning about climate, weather, or anything else in the empirical world, it becomes PART of science, not an alternative to science.

That is, "science" is defined by its METHODS, not by its subject matter, and certainly not by its conclusions at any particular time. It is in the essential NATURE of what we commonly refer to as "science" that conclusions are always subject to change as new information becomes available.

Have you read your mortgage carefully? (Sunday, 10/21/07)
Most people haven't read a word, and this is not news to those who encouraged the granting of the so-called "subprimes" to people with shaky credit histories and insufficient incomes, thinking that a lot of money could be made on high-risk investments.

Are these some of the same opportunists who have been "smelling blood" and buying up houses that that people have lost due to foreclosure? We don't know either, but Kenneth R. Harney writes in the Washington Post that the vultures are circling.

Just when China needs a problem-solver the most... (Sunday, 10/21/07)
When China has been in the news in recent years, it's usually been because of their blazing economic growth rates, which have now given the world's most populous country the fourth largest economy in the world, behind the U. S., Japan, and Germany, respectively.

However, in addition to the vast riches of some Chinese, the country also contains more of the world's poorest people than most countries have total population. China's have vs. have-not gap is cosmic. It also has world-class environmental problems and suffers from rampant corruption. Nonetheless, Joe McDonald writes from Beijing that Wu Yi is retiring.

What it takes to be a "workaholic" (Sunday, 10/21/07)
Strictly speaking, "addiction" probably isn't the right word, even though it's been commonly applied to all manner of dependencies during recent years. Medically, an "addiction" occurs when the body comes to need a chemical substance after repeated exposure. Then, if the substance is taken away, in effect, the body yells "Ouch!" and symptoms of withdrawal occur.

As a consequence, it is accurate to say that some people are "addicted" to street drugs, alcohol, nicotine, or some painkiller medications. In this sense, though, people do not become "addicted" to gambling, the Internet, or, for that matter, work. These kinds of dependencies can be strong and disabling, but they're really examples of obsessive-compulsive disorders, not addictions, even though the latter term is used very loosely in the popular culture. Many obsessive-compulsive disorders are now known to involve body chemistry as well, but not necessarily the same mechanisms.

At any rate, being an "alcoholic" seems to be a fundamentally different thing resulting from different mechanisms than being a "workaholic." Still, too much work for the wrong reasons can be a serious problem for some people, and Phyllis Korkki of the New York Times discusses it.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: AlphaGalileo (Sunday, 10/21/07)
How on Earth could a tiny country such as Portugal play such an important role in world affairs at one time? Or Spain, or, for that matter, England?

Basically, it was because of European technology based on European science. The world has moved on, of course, but European science and technology remain very important. If you want to keep up to date on what European researchers are doing, you could do far worse than staying in touch with AlphaGalileo.

Detroit is hammered again (Friday, 10/19/07)
Forty years ago, Detroit was the fifth largest broadcast market in the country, but Arbitron recently demoted the metro area to the 11th position on it rankings of markets. It's an indication of what has been happening to Detroit overall. While other cities have been growing, Detroit has been shrinking with the loss of automotive jobs. Now, as The Globalist's Markus Ziener reports, Detroit has been hit again with a blizzard of subprime mortgage problems.

Is communism still communism in China? (Friday, 10/19/07)
There's little doubt that China remains an autocratic country, although not all political authority flows from Beijing any longer, given growing decentralization and the growing economic contrast between some of the country's major cities and vast multitudes of people in the Chinese countryside.

However, the ruling Communist Party's emphasis on building a market economy would have appalled Mao, let alone Marx. Chinese government officials are aware that they are sitting on a social power keg which, not only could end the country's stunning economic growth, but also lead to the disintegration of China as a single sovereign country. This may help explain President Hu Jintao's speech at a key meeting this week.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: 2010 Census (Friday, 10/19/07)
When the U. S. Census was first conducted in 1790, the population of the United States was only a bit larger than the current population of the Twin Cities metropolitan area. When the founders stipulated in the Constitution that a Census must be conducted every ten years, they probably couldn't have imagined that their country would one day contain one-hundred times as many people as it did during its first years. There were fewer than a billion people in the entire world at that time (There are about 6.7 billion on Earth now).

Moreover, modern statistics, including sampling techniques, did not yet exist, so they could not have imagined that there would someday be procedures available whereby examining only part of the population could be more accurate than trying to examine every member.

But, the Constitution says that a Census must be conducted every ten years, so it is conducted every ten years, although data analysis is continuous. The U. S. Census Bureau would like us all to get a head start and be prepared for the 2010 Census, so it maintains a web site toward that end.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Preservation News (Thursday, 10/18/07)
The Preservation News news is that the Cornell University Library has digitized the archives of this publication which was published monthly from 1960 to 1995.

Why should you care? Any family with a member who has been an Alzheimer's patient knows how devastating memory loss can be for an individual and those close to that person. Societies and cultures can lose their memories too, and the effects can be equally devastating. The presence of physical artifacts can make it more difficult to lose track of the past. Preservation News covered and reported on historical preservation and restoration in the United States.

The Fed agrees with the Treasury Secretary (Wednesday, 10/17/07)
We reported yesterday on Secretary Paulson's remarks about the impact of the housing and credit crunch on the U. S. economy. Now, Jeannine Aversa says that a report from the Federal Reserve paints a similar picture.

Also, the International Monetary Fund's forecast about a slowing of Canada's economy brings to mind the late Pierre Trudeau's remarks about how one is likely to be tossed around quite a biit even when sleeping with a friendly elephant.

BusinessWeek discusses the Fed's latest Beige Book summary from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Rwanda wants to be Africa's hi-tech central (Wednesday, 10/17/07)
If you think of Rwanda as being one of the world's "backwaters," it may be time to think again. Scott Baldauf writes from Kigali about how that country is in the process of developing a high-speed connection of virtually all of its schools to to the Internet, and how this is part of a larger plan to make Rwanda into the high-technology hub of the huge continent of which it is a part.

Layoffs at AOL (Monday, 10/15/07)
You may recall that AOL, of all companies, bought Time-Warner a few years ago with greatly inflated "dot-com" stock. It turned out to be one of the most infamous mergers in business history, and is likely to be analyzed by generations of MBA students in the future.

It is said that Bob Pittman and Steve Case made out okay on the deal, but Jerry Levine's career certaianly wasn't helped much, and Ted Turner went from being a mega-zillionaire to only a zillionaire. AOL has been struggling in recent years, and Saul Hansell reports that major job cuts will come tomorrow, and a fifth of the company's workforce throughout much of the world will be be eliminated.

A writers' strike could hammer network TV at a very bad time (Monday, 10/15/07)
The Web has been draining business away from conventional newspapers and magazines, as well as record stores (What on Earth is a "record store," Daddy?), as well as most other media, including television. Now, Forbes magazine reports that with the imminent expiration of a writers' contract, a strike is possible, and that would be additional bad news for the TV networks which have been losing viewers to the Web at a furious rate the way it is.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Mathematics for Economics (Monday, 10/15/07)
The University of Nottingham's Rebecca Taylor's site is intended for teachers who want to make fuller use of mathematics in teaching economics, but it can assist those who want to learn more about economics as well. Americans, among others, have never been accused of knowing too much about either mathematics or economics, Dr. Taylor's Mathematics for Economics site can assist nearly everybody who is interested in raising the general level of knowledge in these areas. Also, it seems an appropriate day to call your attention to this site, because the three latest Nobel Laureates in economics were announced today.

Climate change appears to be happening much more rapidly than expected, and why this is not a surprise (Tuesday, 10/9/07)
Noted inventor, scientist, and all-around visionary, Ray Kurzweil, author of The Singularity is Near and other inspired books, won't be surprised when he hears from that new report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that so-called "greenhouse gasses" in the atmosphere already have reached a critical level that hadn't been expected for another decade.

Kurzweil has been saying for years that he can demonstrate that most changes are perceived as linear only because humanity has lacked perspective. Take a larger view, and it's often the case that one can see that what has appeared to be linear change really is geometric. Change occurs at fairly low rates for a long time, not attracting much attention, until it suddenly accelerates and shoots upward on the graph.

Take global population, for instance. It took from the beginning of humanity's life on this planet until about 1840 to reach a point where there were a billion persons on Earth. Now, fewer than 170 years later, there are approximately 6.7 billion living persons on the planet.

Many informed people, including government officials, are feeling a sense of urgency, but Alister Doyle writes from Oslo about why a 2009 deadline may not be met anyway.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Historical Activities for the Calculus Classroom (Sunday, 10/7/07)
Some years ago, it was asserted that the principal reason so many college students were failing their calculus courses was because most of the available textbooks apparently were organized and written by orangoutangs. It appears that things have improved since, though. Gabriela Sanchis draws on the history of this most important branch of mathematics in her contribution to post-secondary and higher education: Historical Activities for the Calculus Classroom.

Incidentally, which two 17th century scholars seem to have invented calculus at around the same time and independently of each other? If you said Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz, you're entitled to the coveted NewWork News handshake award. In fact, we'll be willing to shake your hand even if you left off their first names.

The Nobel committee may be about to strengthen the connection between peace and the environment (Saturday, 10/6/07)
John Acher writes from Oslo, Norway that a former American Vice President and other global warming experts are in the running for the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. If one or more of these persons receives this recognition, it will mean a major shift of attention.

Incidentally, the Nobel Conference was held at Gustavus Adolphus College in St. Peter, Minnesota this week, where some of the world's leading experts discussed climate change and alternative energy sources. Given the critical nature of the issues and the roster of experts, one might expect that the national and international media would have been in attendance, but that doesn't seem to have been the case.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (Saturday, 10/6/07)
The job of a physician is to administer treatments that are both safe and effective, and that's the job of medicines too. For centuries, physicians have been taught "First, do no harm."

Of course, it's somewhat more complicated than that, particularly when it comes to modern medications. All of them have side-effects, which, for some persons, can be significant or even life-threatening. Some medications do harm to a patient while they're doing good. Some carry high risks, but may offer the best odds of effective treatment too.

The United States Food and Drug Administration has federal responsibility for deciding which drugs carry the appropriate balances of risk, as well as good and bad effects. In order to make these judgments, officials at the FDA must know what a drug's effects really are, and it is for this reason that it maintains its Center for Drug Evaluation and Research.

More bad news for Republicans (Friday, 10/5/07)
A number of major Republican office holders have announced that they will not seek reelection, in part, one might suppose, because they see a "perfect storm" brewing and anticipate a "blow-out" in the 2008 election similar to the one that afflicted Democrats in 1994. Now, a new survey finds that a numerical majority of Republican voters see the trade agreements as having a deleterious effect on American workers.

It's still possible that the Bush administration, and, thus, Republican candidates next year, may get some credit for diplomatic success on the Korean Peninsula, and, particularly, if something similar were to happen in relation to Iran. However, while these things might help to repair President Bush's reputation in the history books after several decades have passed, it may not help Republicans who are going to be running for reelection next year. Of course, if the Administration decides to attack Iran in order to stop its development of nuclear weapons, that will be an entirely different matter.

At the moment, though, if you want to see smoke come out of the ears of Republican politicians, just ask them about President Bush after they become convinced that their remarks really are "off the record."

More cuts at Bear Stearns (Friday, 10/5/07)
The summer's mortgage and credit mess is continuing to affect the livelihoods of people in the brokerage sector. Bear Stearns has announced more job cuts.

Incidentally, shouldn't a company in the investment business be called BULL Stearns?

After nearly 55 years, is the war almost over, finally? (Thursday, 10/4/07)
The Korean War didn't end in 1953; there was only a ceasefire. A state of war has continued between the "two Koreas" over all the years since most of the shooting stopped in 1953. However, North Korea's agreeing to dismantle its nuclear facilities may be the start of something--bigger?

Well, it's hard to think of anything bigger than the use of nuclear weapons, but broad change does seem to be brewing on the Korean Peninsula. Kelly Olsen reports that the two Koreas have agreed to expand their economic relationship, while Jonathan Thatcher reports from Seoul for the Washington Post that North and South Korean leaders have agreed to move toward a formal end of the Korean War, now that veterans on both sides, who were young when they served in combat, are nearing the ends of their lives.

What's next--full diplomatic recognition all around, then reunification? We don't know either.

Today's NewWork News Web Tip: Issue Coverage Tracker (Wednesday, 10/3/07)
We've remarked numerous times that we tend to agree with what many Democrats and Republicans say about each other. Also, there is the old gag about the person who was asked about voting, and replied, "Vote? I don't vote. That just ENCOURAGES them!"

Nonetheless, not enough Americans vote or otherwise participate in their political process, suggesting that many don't recognize just how precious and historically unique the American Constitution is.

However, if you're having difficulty keeping the multitude of candidates straight this time, the Washington Post wants to help with Campaign 2008: Issue Coverage Tracker.