NewWork Opinion
					Home

One of the problems with American education at all levels is that many of the things its most outspoken critics and most vigorous defenders say about it are probably true, but not equally so in all settings. However, higher education has its unique peculiarities, particularly regarding organization and culture.

The modern university institution has remote roots in Plato's Academy, Aristotle's Lyceum, the great museum library at Alexandria, and other ancient centers of scholarship. However, in recognizable form, it is roughly a thousand years old now, as we near the end of the millennium on our calendar, and, in some essential respects, remains remarkably unchanged by the centuries. Some of the same things are done in essentially the same ways for reasons no one can remember. In fact, there was widespread resistance to the use of inexpensive, widely available books following the invention of Gutenberg's press! Collective habits of thought and action have been reinforced by the centuries.

The modern university, including its satellite institution, the college, was a creation of the high Middle Ages, even though the still strong feudal elements in campus life have become mixed with bureaucracy during modern times. While it was not born at the stroke of midnight on a particular day, the institution's beginnings are often traced to the founding of universities at Bologna and El Azhar in the 11th century. After that, the idea caught on quickly, and, as the Renaissance gathered momentum, centers of learning proliferated-the University of Paris, Oxford, Cambridge, and soon many others. For years now, there have been tens of thousands.

One can easily read too much meaning into things like this, but it seems at least interesting that, as the university institution nears the end of its first millennium, it faces the most irresistible forces for change in its history.

The pressures are enormous, and, if cultures under siege ever more vigorously assert their increasingly empty symbols and rituals-witness the various fundamentalist movements worldwide in recent years-it is interesting to see that the academic credential, particularly the post-graduate degree, a rapidly inflating currency in North America, is hyped mercilessly by many institutions, including some that probably shouldn't be offering graduate degrees at all.

Moreover, as the old "dirty words" have lost their power over us, we seem to be creating new ones, and "college" appears to be one of these. "Colleges" are magically becoming "universities" at a furious rate. Instead of making new responses to new realities, many institutions are doing the same things, only "louder." It is an escalation that seems shrill, but nonetheless feeble, futile, and irrelevant. I'm reminded of poet John Ciardi's remarks after seeing a sign along the highway advertising the "world's largest cross." What does it mean for one Christian cross to be larger than another?

Very non-traditional organizations are becoming "universities" too, including one founded recently by the former head of a toy company. I don't suppose they'll call it "University R Us," but you never know.

Many higher education institutions are vessels taking on water or are in danger of running aground. Those who work on the decks should look around for the lifeboats, at the very least. Maybe they should consider boarding different ships, or even participating in the design of wholly new kinds of ships, because these surely will be designed and built, whether or not they participate.

It is commonly believed that "you can't do anything without a college degree anymore." The truth is exactly the opposite: you can do anything without a college degree. All you need is the genuine expertise (and conventional campuses may not be the best place to obtain it, given that most professors and administrators themselves lack much of what students will need to thrive in the new economy), and you also need for others not to hold opportunities hostage to traditional so-called "credentials."

The world off campus is beginning to regard these truths as self-evident now, as familiar supporting myths disintegrate, and the implications for higher education could not be more profound. As with the old Soviet Union, what once appeared to be rock solid suddenly is dissolving. Like the concept of "degree," the foundation of the Soviet system was "merely" social construction in the first place, having little to do with fundamental reality.

Surely, declining enrollment, at least in relation to population growth, will be the long-term trend at many colleges and universities, despite the growing premium placed on knowledge and talent in the new economy. In fact, we should see the closing of many campuses, particularly in North America, during the years ahead. As was the case in the private sector some years ago, there simply is far too much increasingly obsolete structure.

Among other things, the technology revolution-including but not limited to "multimedia," direct satellite distribution, interactive fiber optics, etc.-rather than providing all sorts of neat tools for use in conventional contexts, will offer strong arguments in favor of non-traditional alternatives giving effective service at reduced cost and the reduction of existing structure.

Many classroom teachers will find themselves in an uncomfortable economic position similar to that of persons who are trying to make a living manufacturing clothing by hand with a needle and thread. Many irrelevant, nonfunctional or counterproductive administrative jobs will disappear entirely as higher ed organizations are forced to respond to the realities of the new economy, as so many private sector organizations have already had to do. We see it beginning already. Many private sector organizations have "restructured" so ruthlessly because they have begun to take on attributes that colleges and universities have had all along; e.g., the high level of expertise and sophistication of the workers on the "front lines."

For a time, publicly supported institutions will try to retrench by seeking additional political protection from the market. However, too much insulation from market forces has already weakened many institutions, making them less capable of providing high value and competing effectively with non-traditional alternatives. There will be an increasing number of very smart, very aggressive private sector organizations that will take market share away from any institution that isn't good enough to hang on to what it has. Without fundamental changes, many existing conventional institutions will become increasingly irrelevant.

They won't be "overthrown," but they will be ignored, and they will wither quickly. Things change when students stop coming. There will not be a single replacement for any particular institution, anymore than the designers of robots bother to include all the details of the human being, including ear lobes. Similarly, the US Postal Service has not been replaced, but, various alternatives, including e-mail, fax, and private delivery services, have greatly eroded its market share. For the inefficient, ineffective, inflexible institution, there will be a "thousand points of darkness," as a former American President might say.

The common experience of many students tends not to reinforce a belief in the economic benefit of higher education (or, at least, conventional credentials), or the belief that top priority should be given to obtaining academic degrees as quickly as possible. At the very least, one can relax a little. More college? Well, maybe next year, or the year after. There's time. What's the hurry? Moreover, noticing how so many colleges and universities organize and manage their own affairs, it's difficult to have much confidence in the real practical benefits of education. Having people with graduate degrees in charge may seem to be more of a handicap than a help, an ongoing black comedy that Dickens would have loved.

A year or so ago, much publicity was given to the consternation apparently suffered by one large Midwestern American university's officials at learning that most students at the institution no longer finish four-year degrees in four years. Sloth seemed to be suggested. Politicians became worried. The urge to pontificate in front of TV cameras became nearly overwhelming. Resistance to platitudinousness seemed to plummet.

In fact, students are simply far ahead of university officials and politicians. They recognize that, while higher education is a good thing for themselves and their society, their "dream job" is not necessarily waiting at the end of the commencement line. There is no compelling incentive driving most of them to go deeply in debt in order to receive the university's official blessing at an early date. The market is already flooded with people with various degrees, and degrees are no longer what life and work are all about anyway.

While it may be somehow more prestigious or honorable to be unemployed or "underemployed" (a misleading term underscoring the obsolescence of many of our interpretations) with a degree than without, if one will be working fast food after graduation anyway, one might as well work fast food while studying part-time. This way, one may be able to pay as one goes, and, at the very least, minimize crushing, long-term student debt. Students have a more direct relation to the realities of the world off campus than most professionals in the academic community. It's good for people to be in contact with reality, professors, academic administrators, and politicians not excepted. The university's lucky that these people are still showing up at all.

An historic change has already occurred. The traditional link between economic security and higher education has been broken, and there is no going back. There still are relationships, but, rather than being simple and linear or even dichotomous, these relationships have become increasingly complex, multivariate, non-linear, and heteroscedastic. Life is made more complicated, difficult, and dangerous.

We're moving in the direction of having the most highly credentialled discount store and fast food work force in the world. A vast army of highly degreed people are experiencing negative social mobility, at least for several years after graduation, and are trying to pay off student loans by working jobs that would not have required their going to college at all. Moreover, we're just at the beginning. There is still a tremendous amount of restructuring to come in the new economy. Much of the higher education establishment sleeps, but others are wide awake.

Although everyone must make a living, career success has never been the principal reason for higher education. Large numbers of people should go to college, or, at least, somehow acquire college-level competence in the liberal arts. It's good for them, and it is essential for our national well-being. Our survival as a viable democratic society will depend on it. Not only does work in the new economy require a higher level of expertise now, so does citizenship in an increasingly complex, unfamiliar world. The world remains a very dangerous place. Democracy cannot survive too much celebration of ignorance and stupidity.

Still, as growing numbers of students or potential students see what's happening, few will be willing to mortgage their futures simply because somebody else thinks it's going to be good for them. Even if becoming well educated is a civic duty, there is a limit to how much we can expect the individual to risk or sacrifice for the rest of us. People like to raise families and buy houses, and things like that. They don't like to be heavily burdened with large monthly student loan payments that are potentially capable of keeping them permanently out of the housing market unless they can expect a tangible return on their financial investment during a reasonable period of time.

Just as an example, hold this in mind for a moment: the cost of producing a CD-ROM in volume can be as little as a dollar or less, and these things currently have a 650 megabyte capacity, with much greater capacities coming soon. This is roughly equivalent to the text from a thousand ordinary books. Consider not only the portable archival, but also the multimedia possibilities. Compare this with the cosmically greater cost of goods and production for conventional textbooks, which, laughably, are now commonly priced at $50-$70. Then, think about current labor costs, as well as the enormous cost of building and maintaining huge centralized plants with big parking lots. Then, think about the Internet and how it is beginning to make the CD-ROM seem far less interesting, even before it has had an opportunity to develop its full potential.

Even during the low-tech era, with sufficient commitment, one could obtain a splendid education for nothing at the public library. It's not comfortable trying to make a living trying to sell something nobody really needs, which, in this case is an official blessing from a few people largely like oneself, a laying on of hands, an anointing, a "degree."

From the students' point of view, all this is happening at a good time. College done the traditional way at current costs may not pay for itself, or, at least, not before one receives one's AARP card. The traditional economic incentive that has driven many people through college, with the appealing side effect of producing relatively informed citizens, is disappearing. Adults who truly want to learn about psychology or European history or linguistics or geography will need less expensive and more convenient ways of doing it. These means will be available. We can give up our edifice complexes. A few huge campuses will be preserved as monuments to a quaint past, but, in most cases, the real estate will be used for other purposes.

Some people really are compulsive knowledge junkies and will starve themselves in order to understand ozone or the Sixth Amendment better. However, these are not a majority. Society cannot prosper or preserve itself if only the addicted become educated.

Once learning resources become freely available, society will have to find new ways to encourage people to become well-educated for their own benefit as well as that of the community. Public money may be used to support incentive systems rather than institutions. Use the means freely available in order to reach society's measurable criteria for B.A. or M.A.-level competency, say, and we will send you a check for $80,000. Go ahead and buy your house. Better than being $80,000 in debt at the end of your college experience.

The world's colleges and universities collectively contain the most important resources on the planet. Many of their inhabitants are treasures not only because of their expertise, but also because many are among the world's higher quality human beings driven by some of the most essential commitments.

However, like the revolutionary new world economy generally, these resources will be organized and deployed in novel, innovative ways, leaving many inflexible institutions and individuals behind. In an increasingly competence-oriented, performance-oriented economy, the traditional incentive system that has supported traditional academic structure is vaporizing.

1997

Gary expects eventually to complete his book on these issues, but other projects have priority at the moment. Nonetheless, keep an eye out for Higher Ed at the Millennium: Essential Heresies for the New Era.

Home

---

Copyright © 1995-2007 Gary Johnson Communications. All rights reserved. BraveNewWorkWorld, NewWork, NewWork News, Careers in the NewWork World, WITNE, and WITNE: Women in the New Economy are trademarks of Gary Johnson Communications.